News / Asia Pacific driving an express market set to keep delivering healthy growth

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The global parcel delivery market has boasted steady growth since 2020, with Asia the largest contributor, and the market is set to keep growing up to 2028. 

According to senior editor at Transport Intelligence (Ti) Paul Chapman, the global parcel delivery market has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from 2020 to now. 

In 2020, the global parcel delivery market was valued at some €449bn ($470.7bn), which saw a sharp increase to €594bn in 2021, due to “pandemic-induced growth in online shopping”. 

The market contracted in 2022, made a slight recovery in 2023 and, according to Ti’s projections, will further expand in 2024, by 5.1%, to reach €545bn.  

Ti suggested this growth was largely due to “increasing ecommerce activities and demand for efficient logistics solutions”.  

However, Mr Chapman stressed that levels differed by region.  

Asia Pacific is the largest regional market by value, with its express and parcel market forecast to grow 7.7% this year. Ti’s data shows North America and Europe are forecast to grow less rapidly this year, at 3.2% and 3.5% respectively. 

The rising demand for ecommerce – with no indication of it slowing – has positioned the global express parcels market for growth up to 2028, reaching just over €700bn.

Between now and then, the market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.5%, again with varying rates of growth by region, with Asia Pacific “continuing to lead the way with the highest CAGR, of 7.5%”.  

Mr Chapman explained: “This sustained growth highlights the robust expansion in ecommerce and advancements in delivery technology in Asia Pacific, driving its market size from €215bn in 2024 to an impressive €288bn in 2028.” 

DHL Express has said it moved some 6% more shipments between Asia Pacific and the rest of the world between Q1 and Q3 this year than last.

Ti’s data shows North America will follow, with a CAGR of 5.9%, “reflect[ing] consistent demand for express parcel services, driven by the prevalence of digital commerce and a mature logistics network”.  

However, The Loadstar reported today that the US parcel market faces considerable upheaval in the coming year after suggestions that the incoming Trump administration could privatise the USPS, which would add another twist to the changing dynamics in ecommerce flows. 

Europe, “slightly behind North America” but still a “significant market”, is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 5.6% by 2028, “driven by cross-border trade and regional e-commerce growth”. 

UPS, Fedex and DHL are the largest parcel carriers by revenue, and saw similar growth rates in Q3, compared with Q3 2023. UPS’s package revenue in Q3 was up 5.2% on 2023, while DHL Express’s express revenue grew 3%, year on year.