News / Airfreight rates ex-US on the decline amid 'rising anti-Americanism'

© Dzmitry Skazau |

In its latest UK accounts, filed at the end of August, iconic US jeans-maker Levi Strauss warned of the “risk of rising anti-Americanism as a consequence of the Trump tariffs and governmental policies”. 

It added that “consumer preferences [are] possibly shifting away from US products and brands, increasing the willingness to substitute and buy national/European products”. 

With all the focus recently on US imports, the US export market has been rather marginalised – in column inches, anyway.

Anti-American sentiment may well impact some retail-based exports – as has been seen with Tesla, which saw sales to the EU fall nearly 44% in the first half. But in fact, in June, US exports grew year on year, driven by 128% growth to Switzerland, 42% growth to Italy, and a 12.5% rise to the Netherlands, according to government data.

Overall, exports to the EU in Q1 were strong, but fell 3.4% in Q2. Meanwhile, US exports to China rose significantly in Q1, before declining slightly in June. 

In air freight, rates out of the US appear to be falling. The TAC Index noted today that “rates [out of the US] were mostly lower across the board, with declines on lanes to Europe, China and South America”. 

Outbound routes from Chicago fell nearly 12% week on week, and are now down 18.2% year on year. 

According to TAC Index editor Neil Wilson: “Rates from US to Europe are pretty flat YoY (+4.3%) though dropping recently (and a long way lower YoY to Germany).

“US to Asia patterns are varying – a long way down to China (-45.1%) though not to Seoul ( +20.6%).”

WorldACD, meanwhile, revealed that North America origins saw a 4% drop in volumes in August, over July. 

But US exports is a tale of two regions. To Europe, in the year-to-date over the previous year, freighter capacity has fallen 4% according to Rotate’s capacity database.  

Xeneta said last week: “The transatlantic market remained the only bright spot, posting a 5% rise in spot rates year on year, to $1.82 per kg. Yet this was a sharp deceleration from July’s near-20% surge. Spot rates appear to have peaked in mid-August, before retreating in tandem with an 11% fall in volumes in the weeks that followed.” 

Chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw added that ecommerce on the transatlantic westbound could also weaken. 

“The starting point for closing the de minimis threshold was mainly politically motivated against the big Chinese ecommerce platforms. But the widening of this legislation is levelling the playing field again for all ecommerce shipments entering the US, and I would now expect to see lower ecommerce volumes moving by air from Europe to the US. If anything, observers suggest this will now benefit China because of its lower production cost base.” 

Freightos terminal shows that demand for bookings from the eastern US to northern Europe has fallen 7% in 2025, while supply has fallen 9%. From the western US to northern Europe, demand has fallen 13%, while supply has dropped 14%. Tonnages were down 21%. 

But while the transatlantic may weaken further, US exports to China and South-east Asia have been reasonably strong. 

To South-east Asia from western US, volumes have gone up 72% this year, while from the eastern US, volumes to South-east Asia went up 80%, and to greater China, up 82%. Key exports from the US to Asia include aircraft and aerospace equipment, agricultural products, and computers and electronics. 

According to Rotate, US to Asia Pacific freighter capacity has stayed flat – but in the past month, versus an average of the previous four, freighter capacity went up 4%, while it was up 2% on the previous month.