Fifteen years of Cargolux results reveal air cargo’s uneven new era

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Here at The Loadstar, we’ve been watching Cargolux for well over a decade. It has had its ups and downs – from financial stress to union trouble and ownership changes. But one thing has become increasingly clear: the airline’s fortunes tend to mirror the wider cargo market remarkably closely. 

Few periods illustrated that volatility more dramatically than the years between the weak-yield environment of the mid-2010s, the extraordinary Covid cargo boom, and the uneasy “new normal” emerging today. 

The company’s latest results show that, while the unprecedented profits of 2021 and 2022 are gone, the feared collapse to pre-pandemic conditions never fully arrived. 

Cargolux reported net profit of approximately $465m for 2025, following around $448m in 2024, still historically strong by the standards of much of the previous decade. 

For years, freighter operators were trapped in recurring cycles of overcapacity, weak yields, and questions over whether large aircraft such as the Boeing 747 still had a viable long-term future. A decade ago, the industry worried about too many freighters.  

Today, airlines are worrying about whether new ones will arrive quickly enough. Cargolux recently confirmed its B777-8F deliveries had slipped from 2027 to 2029, reflecting wider disruption affecting the global freighter replacement cycle.  

Older aircraft that many expected to disappear years ago continue flying, because demand remains strong enough to support them economically. That alone says something about how dramatically the market has changed for carriers.  

Lufthansa Cargo reported adjusted EBIT of €324m ($375m) for 2025, up 29% year on year, while first-quarter 2026 EBIT also improved sharply as tighter market conditions and stronger Asian demand supported profitability. 

The numbers suggest air cargo has stabilised at a materially higher baseline than many expected once the pandemic boom faded. 

Part of that is structural. Ecommerce remains strong. Manufacturing continues shifting gradually from China into South-east Asia. AI infrastructure and data-centre traffic are emerging as premium cargo segments. And geopolitical disruption, from the Red Sea to Russian airspace closures, continues tightening effective capacity across parts of the market. 

But if the cargo market itself has proved surprisingly resilient, European airlines increasingly argue that the competitive environment has become far less fair. 

Cargolux chief executive Richard Forson put it bluntly during a recent interview. 

“We are all not competing on the same basis anymore,” he said, referring to the growing operational distortions caused by airspace closures and geopolitical conflict.  

For European airlines, the closure of Russian airspace has become especially painful. Flights between Europe and Asia now frequently involve significant detours, adding time, fuel burn, crew costs, and operational complexity. Meanwhile, some competitors continue benefiting from shorter routings and lower operating costs. 

Lufthansa Group has repeatedly highlighted similar concerns in recent results commentaries, warning that European airlines face structural disadvantages on Asian routes because of Russian airspace restrictions. 

At the same time, Europe is also pushing ahead aggressively with sustainability regulation and SAF obligations that many rival airlines outside the region do not yet face. 

For long-time observers of the cargo market, however, there is also something strikingly familiar about today’s pressures. 

When Cargolux reported a net loss in 2011, the airline blamed high fuel prices, rising leasing costs, and delays to B747-8 freighter deliveries. More than a decade later, many of those themes still dominate the industry: volatile fuel costs, delayed aircraft programmes, and geopolitical disruption. 

But there is one important difference. Then, the industry’s main problem was overcapacity and weak demand. Today, airlines are, instead, dealing with constrained supply, persistent geopolitical disruption, and increasingly uneven operating conditions. 

While European cargo airlines remain profitable, many executives now privately question how long they can continue competing globally if operational and regulatory burdens continue diverging. 

AI infrastructure cargo barely existed as a meaningful segment a decade ago. Ecommerce has permanently altered capacity dynamics. Geopolitical disruption has become semi-permanent, rather than exceptional. And replacement freighter aircraft are increasingly difficult to secure. 

For years, Cargolux’s results have served as a rough proxy for the health of the wider cargo market. And it looks as if the industry may be entering a new era: structurally stronger than the old market, but also more fragmented, volatile, and uneven than before.