News / Air rates to surge as Middle East disruption hits capacity amid strong demand

Air freight rates are set to climb further as disruption in the Middle East squeezes capacity in a market already underpinned by strong demand, according to DHL Global Forwarding. 

In a briefing yesterday, the forwarder signalled that the pricing impact of the crisis is only just beginning to show, warning that current trends will diverge sharply from last year’s pattern.  

“We started in a very similar fashion to 2025,” said Patrick Bongers, VP global head of air freight growth at DHL Global Forwarding, referring to rate development earlier this year, but added that the market trajectory will now change. 

The previous rate benchmark, he added, will not be followed, but will be “much exceeded” due to the “shortage of capacity and the fuel impact”. 

The shift is being driven first by a sudden contraction in capacity. 

“Most of the lanes we all are dealing with are either directly severely impacted, which are all lanes to and from the Middle East and Africa, or indirectly impacted and that includes intra-Asian lanes, Americas to EU as well, Europe to Asia and vice versa,” explained Mr Bongers. 

“It’s pretty drastic to see the cut of capacity that appeared over the past two weeks. 49% or even other figures correlate to 68% depending on the week-over-week comparison, but week 9 to week 11, minus 49% capacity on the Middle Eastern carriers, and that is still the case. We are still waiting for the capacity to come back into the market,” he added.  

At the same time, jet fuel costs are rising sharply, adding another layer of pressure to airline pricing. DHL noted that fuel remains a critical component of operating costs, with “jet fuel… responsible for 30 to 40% of the operating cost of an aircraft”. 

But alongside tight capacity, another factor at play in the expected rate rise is a strong demand for key verticals.  

Mr Bongers described “continued sustained growth over the past 12 months”, with global volumes expanding steadily and early 2026 figures reinforcing that trend.  

January and February recorded 8% and 6% respectively of volume growth in global airfreight, reflecting what the company called “strong trade activities”. 

Technology supply chains are a key driver. DHL GF pointed to “the demand for data centre logistics, for AI computing, hyperscalers and the complete ecosystem around it” as a major source of air freight growth. These flows are typically high-value and time-sensitive, making them less flexible when capacity tightens. 

Geographically, demand is also broadening rather than concentrating. The ongoing “China plus one” shift is redistributing volumes across Asia, with Mr Bongers identifying Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India and Taiwan as “the big drivers with regards to air freight growth outbound Asia”. This diversification, he explained, means more origins competing for constrained space, rather than a simple rebalancing of volumes. 

Consumer demand, including ecommerce, also remain strong, while life sciences shipments are becoming more frequent and more specialised.  

DHL noted that although tonnage growth in healthcare is modest, “the number of shipments is growing much stronger”, reflecting a shift to smaller, high-value consignments that rely heavily on airfreight. 

DHL had already forecast that “the growth of capacity is not keeping up with the growth of demand”, with demand running at roughly double the pace of supply expansion, and its recent update it urged that the Middle East crisis has widened that gap further by removing capacity at short notice.