News / Air forwarders face financial uncertainty – but 'there are opportunities'

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Forwarders will be reducing their financial forecasts for the year, as “uncertainty has an adverse impact” – but there could be opportunities amid that uncertainty.  

The Loadstar previously reported how, at the CNS conference in Miami last week, IATA director of sustainability & economics Andrew Matters teased that IATA’s upcoming air cargo yield growth forecast for 2025 would signal a downward trend.  

And Charles Marrale, CEO of ExFreight, told The Loadstar on the sidelines of the event: “I think the reduction in yield forecast for IATA specifically is an impact of the de minimis reduction.  

“No longer are people going online and buying a $5 t-shirt from Temu. They’re going to just go through Amazon and buy it locally, and pay more money,” he explained. 

“Air freight imports to the US from Asia – specifically from China – are going to be down, so pricing will be lower from China into the US. There might be a temporary bump over the next three to four weeks, because of the sudden opening-up of the market with the reduction of tariffs, but overall, it will probably be down after three months.” 

And Brandon Fried, executive director of the Air Forwarders’ Association, told The Loadstar this would lead to many forwarders reducing their balance forecasts for the year.  He added: “We’re looking at the airlines, and if they’re concerned, we’re concerned as well. Although we’re the ones out there on the street.  

“Uncertainty generally has an adverse impact on forecasting, there’s no doubt. We’re optimistic and we’re hopeful, but the reality is that our forecasts are being downgraded,” he added. 

Indeed, Mr Marrale added that, “from a business perspective, if you see inflationary pressures everywhere, especially in the US because of the tariffs and de minimis, that’s going to drive wage costs up”. 

However, he believed that “whenever there’s chaos, there’s opportunity”.  

He explained: “If you’re too close to the problem and you can’t see the forest and the trees, you won’t see this coming; therefore you don’t plan accordingly, and you’re caught flat-footed. 

“It’s very hard to make changes when you’re behind the ball. If you can see forthcoming problems with wage inflation, etc, you can plan, be strategic about it, and you can weather it.” 

According to Mr Marrale, digitalisation will be at the heart of forecasting and remaining resilient, giving tech-savvy forwarders an edge.  

“Can you still make money as a ‘traditional’ freight forwarder with rising wages and reduced pricing? That’s the challenge. It’s a hard market to be in,” he said.  

Flexport’s head of airfreight DACH and Italy, Arno Hausch, recommended those tendering to “consider RFP validities”. He said: “Ask for quarterly deals. Monthly deals, if your business allows that.  

“A 12-month deal will most probably add a lot of hedging into it, or a lot of buffering,” he explained. “So, either you’re exposed to a service provider that is not able to serve you for the same price they were offering, or you have pricing which has buffered-in all potential scenarios, but is then, most likely, a little on the higher side.”