News / Box volumes surge, but instability casts a shadow

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Global container volumes in February surged well above five-year norms, despite seasonal weakness, but geopolitcal instability is casting a shadow on the rest of the year.

The latest global demand data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) – which reflects conditions before the full impact of current geopolitical conflicts – shows that despite the seasonal slowdown caused by Chinese New Year, February delivered volumes “significantly higher” than those seen over the past five years.  

According to CTS data, global volumes reached 15.04m teu, up 12-13% on the previous two years. Year-to-date growth also stands at 8%, which is double the pace seen at this stage in 2025. 

Month on month, volumes declined 6.5%, which was expected due to the seasonal slowdown, but “notably smaller” than the 13% decline observed between January and February 2025. 

On the freight cost side, CTS’s Global Price Index fell 4 points, to 74, a level last seen in October 2025. February index levels stood at 84.

“This continued softening may indicate an oversupply of capacity, as prices decline while volumes remain elevated,” explained CTS.  

Shipping line OOCL revealed today that for the first quarter ended 31st March, its total liftings increased by 1.7% and the loadable capacity increased 4.3%. However, OOCL added that overall average liner revenue per teu decreased by 9.1% compared with the first quarter of last year.

Source: OOCL

CTS highlighted that North America “continued to show weakness”, and its exports in February stood at just over 1.1m teu, the lowest level since January 2025. It imported 2.6m teu, which is the lowest level since February 2024.  

Year-on-year, however, North American imports showed a modest 4.8% increase – “one of the few positive indicators for the region so far this year”, said CTS. 

Logistics company Descartes released its March demand data yesterday, which show US containerised import volumes of 2.35m teu in March, a 12.4% rise on February’s 2.09m teu – some 400,000 teu less than CTS data.  

Global export trends showed a mixed month-on-month picture, with Europe posting a sharp 18% rise compared with January, while the Far East and Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East recorded declines of 12.9% and 8.1% respectively. 

However, despite the monthly rebound, European exports remain down 3.4% year to date, indicating a more pronounced post-Christmas slowdown this year. 

The Far East, Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East saw across-the-board monthly declines, largely due to seasonal and timing factors. Nevertheless, both regions continue to perform strongly overall, with the Far East up 18.8% year on year and the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East up 8.3%. 

On the import side, all regions recorded year-on-year growth, led by Sub-Saharan Africa, where imports surged 33%. Growth is being driven by increased cargo flows from Asia and the Middle East, underlining the rising importance of emerging trade routes.  

Europe also saw “solid” import gains of 21% year on year, despite a slight 3.8% month-on-month decline. 

Looking forward, a recent report from maritime consultancy Braemar highlighted the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) latest Interim Economic Outlook that indicates the global economy is stabilising, “but only just”. 

The OECD projected global growth to hover around 2-3%, with “advanced economies lagging” and emerging markets doing more of the “heavy lifting”. But the slow pace of easing inflation has meant demand is expected to lag for some time.  

“Containerised trade reflects this subdued backdrop. Growth is modest, inflation is easing slowly, and interest rates remain restrictive,” summarised Braemar.  “The world economy is no longer in crisis mode, but it is fragile, exposed, and highly sensitive to new shocks, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.” 

The OECD underscored a possible “stagflation-lite” scenario, which would see slower growth combined with renewed inflationary pressure.  

Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach explained: “In such an environment, policymakers have limited room to respond, and global trade becomes both a casualty and a transmission mechanism of broader economic weakness. 

“The implication for containerised trade is not collapse, but constraint. Volumes are likely to grow slowly, costs are likely to remain elevated, and volatility is likely to persist.” 

Mr Roach warned that for container shipping, a slowdown in spending “quickly translates” into lower vessel utilisation and “greater friction in freight markets”.  

CTS noted that its upcoming Q1 26 results would provide a “clearer picture” of how the year had truly begun under external pressures.  

It said: “With North America continuing to decline in both imports and exports, global trade appears to be rebalancing across other regions. The key question remains whether this redistribution is sustainable as we move further into 2026, or whether the evolving geopolitical landscape will reshape global trade patterns once again.”