News / Tariff turmoil brought a 'significant' boost in liner connectivity – for some

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New analysis shows tariffs have caused a “statistically significant, abnormal increase” in some countries’ liner connectivity. 

While the recent trade deal marks a significant step in a China/US relationship recovery, the analysis from Sea-Intelligence notes that the “trade diversion ship” has already sailed.  

Investigation concluded that certain countries have been the beneficiary of an “abnormal” increase in their aggregate liner shipping connectivity (LSCI) as a direct result of tariffs this year. They include Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.

They were measured against control countries Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Indonesia – selected as their trade patterns orient towards different economic blocs or commodities, allowing analysts to isolate the “tariff effect” from other global noise. 

“We found, with 99.98% statistical confidence, that the diversion countries received a substantial 25.5-point ‘connectivity boost’ directly linked to the tariff escalations,” said Sea-Intelligence

Graph: Sea-Intelligence

It explained that while the control group’s growth was “entirely predictable” and “fully explained by their normal economic fundamentals”, the diversion group’s growth “wildly out-performed” what their economies should have produced without the trade war.  

“This is not a statistical illusion,” stated Sea-Intelligence. 

“Shipping lines are actively and significantly re-deploying their vessels to follow the new flow of cargo. The connectivity of these new manufacturing hubs is not just improving, it is accelerating away from the global baseline, validating the move to these five countries and strengthening their profile as competitive and viable sourcing hubs.” 

It noted that Mexico was the “undisputed” primary beneficiary of a US near-shoring trend, while Vietnam was the most prominent ‘China plus one’ destination.  

Meanwhile, specific actions of the recent trade deal have been confirmed. 

The US has agreed to lower ‘fentanyl tariffs’ on Chinese imports from 20% to 10% from 10 November, and will keep the “heightened reciprocal tariffs” on ice until 10 November 2026 and leave this measure at 10%.  

On the Chinese side, actions include the suspension of export controls on rare earths minerals and all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures, increased mitigation to stem the flow of fentanyl to the US and a significant and continual soybean purchase through to 2028. 

China has also agreed to nullify retaliatory measures for the USTR’s Section 301 port fees and terminate its “various investigations” on US companies in the semiconductor supply chain. 

The US will also suspend the USTR’s Section 301 port fees for one year, starting on 10 November. 

The White House statement said it would use the year suspension to “negotiate with China” while continuing its “historic cooperation” with Korea and Japan on “revitalising American shipbuilding”. 

Indeed, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, highlighted: “More trade talks will have to happen prior to that date and with this comes the risk of more changes (positive or negative).”