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China as economic and political power

As President Trump touts a win today in China, the US Senate has undermined his tariff policy at home by voting against the duties imposed on Brazil.

And Congress’s higher chamber is set to vote on Canadian levies in the coming days, all of which has left forwarders none the wiser on how to act.

Aboard Air Force One, President Trump confirmed that tariffs on imports from China would be reduced from 57% to 47% following his decision to halve 20% fentanyl-related levies, noting he believed China “can help us with the fentanyl situation”.

China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed that after the 100-minute talks between the US commander in chief and President Xi: “The 24% equivalent tariff imposed on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year.”

For ocean carriers, perhaps the biggest news, is that the US would be suspending its USTR port call fees that came into effect only a fortnight ago, and that Beijing would be doing the same for its counter measures – both for 12 months.

On top of the concessions by each side, the US will also suspend the blacklisting of majority-owned Chinese firms operating in the US, with China adjusting counter measures against US tariffs and postponing some planned export controls on rare earths.

However, those already imposed, in April, on key rare earths remain, along with the prohibition of the export of ‘dual-use’ items to US defence and aerospace entities.

“Overall, this does point to some de-escalation in the trade war between US and China,” said Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen, “but there is not necessarily a long-term certainty of the trade environment, given that some of these agreements are for one year only.”

President Trump may have touted the meeting as “amazing”, but already there are claims that his decision was prompted the response to increasing consumer costs at home that have hit his popularity ratings.

This week, forwarders said a deal between the US and Brazil had been driven by “rising costs around the breakfast table”, Americans paying more for coffee and fruit in the wake of the punitive tariff applied to imports from Brazil.

That likely influenced the decision of five Republican senators to go against the advice of US vice president JD Vance and vote with Senate Democrats to approve legislation to revoke not only tariffs against Brazil but also Canada which has been hit with an additional levy.

Mr Vance had lobbied his Republican colleagues not to take this step, stating: “Voting against this is stripping the president of the United States of this incredible leverage. I think it is a huge mistake, and I know that most people in the room agree with me.”

Even so, the president does have some leeway on this front, with Republicans in Congress’s lower chamber having passed a rule this year that will prevent them from considering tariff-related legislation until January, delaying its passage into law.

It marks two of three expected votes relating to the White House’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for its tariff programme, with another vote expected relating to tariffs against a number of other countries.

Following a video posted over the weekend by Ontario premier Doug Ford, which included a quote from former US president Ronald Regan citing the long-term harm of tariffs, President Trump announced an additional 10% on the US’s northern neighbour.

When that begins remains unknown, but Airforwarders Association executive director Brandon Fried warned it would “punish American businesses and consumers more than it protects them”.

He added: “Tariffs don’t build resilience; they build cost. Every additional charge ripples through the supply chain, from warehouse floors to retail shelves. To encourage growth, we need smarter policy and more cooperation, not higher walls.”

Given the lack of detail surrounding the new Canada tariffs, the timing of the suspensions relating to this agreement with President Xi and precisely what is happening with Brazil, forwarders will be wary of acting too hastily.

Mr Jensen said: “I would like to see the actual details in writing confirmed by both sides. The reason is, sadly, that statements on trade agreement details coming from Trump cannot necessarily be trusted to be fully accurate.

“As the most recent example, Trump announced trade deals with Japan and stated that Toyota would be investing $10bn a year in building factories ‘all across the US’. Toyota then made a statement that no such explicit promise was made about an investment of that size.”

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