The Loadstar Leader: Headline news for trade – or is it? Best just wait and see...

Over the weekend the Chinese government announced that preliminary agreements on tariff reduction had been reached with the US after last week’s visit by Donald Trump to the East Asian powerhouse. Here at The Loadstar, editorial discussion concerned just how valuable an announcement it was.

Alongside the news on tariffs, Beijing also confirmed that deals had been struck on agricultural produce and aircraft. Surely this was all indicative of the world reverting to some semblance of normality.

In any ordinary environment that would make sense, but with fewer than 18 months on the clock in his second go round at being president, Mr Trump and his “deals” have proven predictably unreliable.

Take India: only in February, he announced agreement had been reached that would see the US cut its tariff rate against Indian goods to 18%. Fewer than 10 days later, the US Supreme Court struck down the White House’s capacity to use tariffs as a cudgel for beating trade partners into submission, capping the highest tariff rate at 10%.

Unsurprisingly, the Indian government opted against implementing a deal that just a few days earlier left the country in relatively strong position.

For shippers and their logistics partners, the constantly shifting landscape is more than mere political intrigue. It undermines their capacity to forward-plan and leaves them in a constant state of limbo. Like The Loadstar, they must have become used to seeing “Breaking trade deal” headlines, and now think “let’s wait a month or so and see what happens”.

One entity not waiting any longer to see what happens, however, is Hapag-Lloyd. Together with CMA CGM, the German carrier has suspended bookings to and from Cuba, seemingly taking seriously the implications of the 1 May US executive order that further tightened sanctions against the Caribbean country.

Hapag-Lloyd said it was “currently assessing the situation to determine whether, and under which conditions, services to and from Cuba may continue in the future”.

Whether this means it is concerned that provision of services would breach the new sanctions, or it fears war is coming, is not clear. But what is clear – and audible – are the drumbeats coming out of Washington to expand President Trump’s military expeditions further still.