News / Gemini schedule reliability falls below 90% target for the first time

Photo: VesselFinder

The Gemini Alliance has dropped below its targeted 90% reliability for the first time since its launch, and is on “a downward trend”, according to analysts at liner database eeSea.

The platform’s latest two weeks of data, which now include Gemini’s first head-haul arrivals into North America, show that while reliability remains high, “the downward trend unfortunately continues”.

It revealed that the alliance’s on-time-performance (OTP) since its launch on 1 February had fallen below 90% for the first time.

In the two weeks since 3 March, Gemini arrivals have shown a respective OTP of 87%, 84% and 83% – with eeSea noting that “we’re only three days into the current week, so that 83% will change”.

However, during the recent TPM25 conference in Long Beach, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen suggested there would be teething problems as the new network bedded in.

“I don’t think we’re going to hit that [90% OTP] in the first or the second cycle, because these network changes are so big that things will need a little bit of time to settle down,” he told The Loadstar at a TPM25 press briefing. “But I’m very optimistic that in the second half of this year, we will either hit it or be very, very close to it,” he added.

The good news for US importers, however, is that for the 18 Gemini transpacific head-haul arrivals into North America from the Far East so far, overall OTP is 94%.

It remains to be seen if European importers will enjoy the same reliability as their US counterparts – today will see the first four Gemini arrivals in Europe from the Far East.

The Porto Germeno, on the SE2/AE11 into Tangier Med, the Emma Maersk, on the NE3/AE3 into Algeciras, and Marseille Maersk, on the NE4/AE5 into London Gateway, are all set to arrive on time, according to eeSea – ‘on time’ classified as within 24 hours of the scheduled proforma. The latter of which is the first “real” port call into Europe, as Algeciras and Tangier Med are both transhipment ports.

But the Adams, on the NE1/AE2 into Tangier Med, will “not be able to get a berth upon arrival in Tanger Med, and will thus be off schedule”, warned eeSea.

If indeed Gemini’s Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk can deliver the promised 90% schedule reliability once the network is fully phased-in, it will be welcome respite for shippers that have been scrambling to manage supply chains in the wake of reliability that has hovered around the 50% mark.

Daniel Krassenstein, global supply chain director at Procon Pacific, said at the TPM25 conference: “Gemini, good luck to them. I hope it works. If it works, I will support them, because I want predictability… reducing errors, staying on target, do what you say you’re going to do, right? So, if Gemini can pull that off, I’m going to be a big supporter.”

eeSea founder Simon Sunboell had shown delegates data from the first four weeks of Gemini reliability by port calls, examining the average delay translated into an on-time percentage.

“They started out at 95%, 94%, 90%. It’s a downward slope, but it’s a good start,” he said.

“Let’s see how it goes in the coming weeks,” Mr Sunboell added, “so far, so good”.

Meanwhile, in what is set to be something of a watershed port call for the UK, Maersk notified customers this week that its final deepsea call at the country’s largest port, Felixstowe, would be made by the 15,200 teu Maersk Horsburgh on the 2M AE7/Condor service, which is due to arrive on 23 March – some 13 days behind schedule.