News / US LTL carriers eye price hikes to offset rising costs, but will clients pay?

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US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers have fared better than their counterparts in the full-truckload (FTL) sector, in terms of stemming rate erosion – but their latest price increases are unlikely to find success, reckon industry experts.

Old Dominion, for example, is to raise its pricing by 4.9% on 3 November, and will increase its minimum charges in intra-state, inter-state and cross-border lanes.

Other LTL carriers are moving in the same direction: Saia raised its pricing by 5.9% at the beginning of this month; ArcBest upped its rates by 5.9%; and FedEx Freight has announced a 5.9% hike in its rates for 5 January.

Todd Polen, Old Dominion’s VP of pricing services, said the increase was designed to “partially offset the rising costs of real estate, new equipment, technology investments, and competitive employee wage and benefit packages”.

Observers acknowledged that costs had gone up for LTL carriers, but they don’t think shippers are going to swallow these rate hikes.

“The increase may stick with smaller shippers that have no leverage, but others will reject them,” said Satish Jindel, president and founder of ShipMatrix. “There’s no demand. People will shop. They will look around.”

In its 2025 Q3 Market Update & Outlook, Uber Freight analysts arrived at the same conclusion. They expect general rate increases of between 3% and 5%, but advised their readers that these “can be negotiated down”.

The Cass Freight Index for shipments shows demand in the LTL sector down 4% year on year in the first half of 2025.

Uber Freight’s analysts expect any uptick in pricing and volume to be slow.

“LTL pricing should not have a dramatic impact on shipper’s budgets over the next 12 calendar months,” they wrote.

Jeff Thomas, Uber Freight’s VP of LTL, sees no sign of potential volume growth through an economic uptick or a slew of bankruptcies in the trucking sector that could push some traffic to the LTL sector.

“A weaker economy could also lift LTL volumes in a different way, by encouraging smaller shipment sizes. However, that effect would likely be offset by an overall decline in freight demand, limiting any meaningful volume growth,” he concluded.

According to TA Transportation Trendline, the US trucking market actually showed signs of strengthening in the third quarter. Load-to-truck ratios improved, from 4:1 in the third quarter of last year to 6:1, which TA attributed to tightening capacity, while demand remained soft.

Economic indicators point to ongoing softness. After strengthening in August, the Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index slumped again, pointing to sluggish demand in the industrial sector. As Uber Freight noted in its Q3 report, the recovery after Covid was driven by electronics, pharmaceuticals and personal care products – sectors that do not generate heavy freight volumes.

Mr Jindel is also sceptical about demand, pointing to the increasing drag from tariffs on the economy and rising fears of job losses affecting consumer confidence.

Uber Freight noted in its report on the truckload sector that shippers had extended the RFP season in an attempt to capture savings. It advised cargo owners to pursue a two-round bidding strategy, noting that savings in the second round yield an additional 3%-5% in savings on average.

“We’re anticipating a slightly heavier RFP season as shippers try to get their networks in place and accelerate timelines ahead of potential market shifts. Faster speed to market means they can secure their capacity before others and hedge against potential increases later in the bid cycle, concluded Nathan Adams, VP of transportation and procurement.