News / Liner schedule reliability improving, with Gemini carriers leading the way

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Ocean schedule reliability is at its highest in 17 months, according to Sea Intelligence, which adds there is a clear pattern emerging between the alliances.  

According to the analyst’s data for April, overall schedule reliability was 58.7%, the best since November 2023.  

Striving to stay true to their ambitious promise of delivering 90%, Gemini duo Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd were the only carriers in the top 13 by size with schedule reliability of more than 70%.  

Danish carrier Maersk topped the list at 73.4%, followed closely by Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd’s 72.3%. Standalone carrier MSC was third, achieving 60.7%.  

Six of the top 13 middled out in the 50%-60% range, and the remaining four, notably all members of the Ocean Alliance achieved reliability of less than 50%, with Evergreen supporting the table with 46.5%.  

Unsurprisingly, these numbers were reflected when broken down by alliance.  

In March/April, the Gemini Cooperation recorded an average of 90.7% schedule reliability across trades – above its target 90% on Asia-to-US west coast and US east coast-to-Europe services, but between 77% and 85% for its other trades.  

MSC’s average on-time average was 69.8%, the Premier Alliance’s 53%, and the Ocean Alliance’s was 51.1%. 

And this order was similar when broken down by trade: Gemini the most reliable on the Asia-NAWC, Asia-NEUR, Asia-MED, NAEC-MED, MED-NAEC, NEUR-NAEC trades, with MSC second for the majority.  

Outliers for this pattern, though, emerged on the transpacific eastbound trades.  

On Asia-NAWC, Gemini recorded 100% schedule reliability, Ocean Alliance 66.4%. MSC 58.1%, and Premier Alliance 55.4%. For Asia-NAEC, MSC was the most reliable, achieving 91.7%, followed by Gemini with 82.8%, Premier Alliance at 51.8%, and Ocean Alliance at 48.4%. 

Despite the broad variation between numbers, the overall trend is that reliability is on the increase, said Sea Intelligence. 

“Year on year, eight carriers recorded an improvement, with Maersk recording the largest improvement, of 24.8 percentage points, while three other carriers also recorded double-digit increases,” said Sea Intelligence. 

Indeed, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jensen told The Loadstar at a press briefing earlier this year: “If we would be able to deliver that type of schedule reliability, then I think that’s generally a very attractive product. That will also allow people to, for example, take a couple of weeks out of their inventory because they can reduce safety stock, and then that brings some benefit to that supply chain.”