News / Liner newbuild orderbook still swelling as MSC and Maersk go shopping

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Liners seem undeterred by an imminent overcapacity-fuelled pricing war, as MSC hits a new capacity record and Maersk’s fleet replacement programme goes on.  

Over the weekend, Geneva-headquartered MSC hit the record-breaking capacity milestone of 7m teu across its network, after receiving near-simultaneous deliveries of the 16,000 teu MSC Salerno and MSC Grace. 

The world’s largest shipping line has taken just over a year and 68 vessel deliveries to jump from 6m teu fleet capacity to 7m, and now controls 21% of global container fleet capacity. 

And former liner leader Maersk – 2.4m teu behind MSC – is lining up an order for eight 18,000 teu LNG dual-fuel containerships from China’s New Times Shipyard, with an option for four more. 

Citing brokerage sources, Alphaliner stated that the Danish carrier would have to splash out some $193m to $195m per ship and will receive deliveries in 2028 and 2029.  

The Loadstar has previously reported how 2027 is set to be the year that, with current projections, liner capacity will peak, with sustained overcapacity adding to rate gloom for carriers. 

“The magnitude of the overcapacity will be the same as seen in 2016, which is a year best remembered for the apex of a strong price war between the carriers,” said Sea-Intelligence analysts. 

The containership orderbook is already at record levels – over the next four years, Maersk, for example, is already scheduled to take delivery of 26 LNG-dual fuel newbuilds, some owned and some on charter.  

“Critical issues, persistent overcapacity and fragile demand, with low volumes from the US,” is how Izabela Listowska, lead for transportation EMEA for S&P Global, describes the prospects for next year. 

“Too many ships will be chasing too little cargo, putting even more pressure on rates – unless we get positively surprised on the tariff side, on demand trends, or on scrapping,” she said recently at London International Shipping Week. 

But Daniel Harlid, senior credit officer for corporate finance at Moody’s, pointed out that this was now the second or third year in a row for which analysts have expected looming overcapacity which has not reached fruition.  

“We know about the overcapacity, we know that the fleet has grown substantially more than the underlying demand. So, if it’s going to happen in 2026 or not, I don’t know.  

“But if we go back to normalised Suez Canal use, then 2026 would be a really, really weak year for the container shipping industry. That is clear,” he concluded.