News / Import surge from return to Suez Canal could overpower Europe's ports

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With the fragile Gaza peace deal holding, shipping industry thoughts have once more turned to the possibility of a safe passage through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

The local situation at the Bab Al-Mandeb straits remains extremely fluid, with LPG tanker Falcon this weekend the subject of an explosion which saw 24 seafarers abandon the vessel, with two still missing.

The UKMTO, the naval force that monitors terrorist and pirate activity in the region, has yet to formally identify the cause of the incident, but it further underscores the continuing uncertainty in the region.

Meanwhile, new analysis from Sea-Intelligence this week showed how important it will be for carriers to manage the return to Suez transits, as this has the potential to upend the Asia-Europe container supply chain.

Given that the earliest the industry could return en masse to Suez is currently the second quarter of next year, we should use the second quarter of 2025 as a basis for comparison.

In Q2 25, Sea-Intelligence calculated the weekly volume from the Far East, Middle East and India into Europe as 459,000 teu. But should all carriers instantly return to transiting Suez, rather than phasing-in services, it would mean that for at least two weeks, European ports would be faced with handling 918,000 teu each week.

That would represent a 60% surge in European imports almost overnight, which could bring the continent’s port system crashing down, as has been predicted by carriers and shippers.

However, should the return to Suez be managed in phases, the surge appears less overwhelming, Sea-Intelligence argued. A four-week phased return resulting in a 30% surge across a four-week period; while an eight-week phase-in would mean a 14% growth in imports over two months.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

Meanwhile, as a proportion of total containers handled in Europe – including import and export boxes and all trades servicing the region – the Suez-related surge would be 10%-39%, depending on the timing of services’ return.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

“It is evident that the port infrastructure in Europe will be unable to cope with an instant switch-over,” said Sea-Intelligence.

“But it can also be seen that spreading this over just a few weeks will significantly reduce the spike capacity, and this is likely what the carriers will be attempting to do.”

But it added: “The open question is still how much excess capacity do European ports have? It looks less daunting to see a 10% surge spread out over eight weeks. But it should be noted that the maximum load seen was cargo loaded in March 2025 – and this did lead to significant port congestion problems in Europe.

“The switch-over spike of 10% spread over eight weeks will then come on top of this,” it warned.

The situation also continues to overshadow Asia-Europe shippers’ planning for next year, particularly as the annual contracting season on the trade gets under way over the next few weeks.

“No-one’s wanting to go via Suez yet, and I’d doubt many, if any, insurers would want to give cover currently,” one shipper told The Loadstar.

“One thing for sure is when it does open up on regular schedules, there’ll be a rate war once the initial operating issues of convergence of services arrive into Europe at the same time,” they added.