News / Houthis signal potential return of attacks on shipping

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Yemen’s Iran-backed militia, the Houthis, appear to have thrown a spanner into the works of abandoning Cape of Good Hope diversions, posting a video indicating a potential return to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Following two years of strikes against vessels transiting the Suez Canal, the Houthis suspended their campaign after the Gaza peace plan in October, but last night a video displaying images of successful attacks was captioned with the word “soon”.

One shipping source told The Loadstar they wondered whether Iran’s support of the Houthis would prompt the group to throw its weight behind the country in its seeming stand-off with the US, by “closing the Red Sea yet again”.

The Yemeni group provided no elaboration on what the video meant but there seemed to be consensus among those The Loadstar spoke to that aircraft carrier the USS Abraham Lincoln being on its way to the region was a “dangerous catalyst [that] has turned the tide”.

“Trump vaguely hinting at potential consequences is one thing, but sending an aircraft carrier is a frightening signal that cannot be underestimated, given the political climate,” the source continued.

“As for the Houthis, it makes sense that they would deploy their strategic warnings now – the threat of fresh attacks alone is enough to incur economic costs and operational setbacks to carriers, ports, and shippers alike.”

Another shipping source believed it was “clearly intended as a threat”, and pointed out to The Loadstar that the “soon” message “appeared to mimic that used by Kate Miller, wife of US homeland security advisor Stephen Miller, as a reference to Greenland.

Nor was it completely out of the blue, with signals someone somewhere knew the issue may be rearing its head again following the increased optimism brought about by Maersk not only trialling increasing numbers of ships through the waterway but adding scheduled services.

And the decision of CMA CGM to reroute vessels deployed on its FAL1, FAL3 and MEX services via the Cape of Good Hope, citing the “complex and uncertain international context” after the French carrier had been the most willing to test the waters.

Some had suggested this may have been a commercial ploy, given the ongoing weak demand environment and excess capacity, but another source – pointing out CMA CGM’s willing to test the waters when others would not – rejected this assertion.

“I was frankly surprised to see speculation that their decision was really a set up for short-lived commercial gains, that is not characteristic of their philosophy or operations, it just did not make sense,” the source told The Loadstar.

“Given that they have a very close ear to the ground and share strategic interests with both the French and US military, it is far less far-fetched to believe they might be aware of ‘extra’ risks only discussed in closed circles.”

Now, focus will turn to the Cornelia Maersk, the first vessel in the carrier’s MECL1 service scheduled to transit the Suez Canal and due to call in at Salalah today before venturing on to North America.