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Right, but when?

That’s the question the whole world wants answered when it comes to the vaccination push.

The last several weeks have delivered plenty in the way of encouraging data on Covid-19 vaccines, contributing to a powerful pro-cyclical rotation across assets, even as the US long-end refuses to join in on the reflationary euphoria (Friday saw more bull flattening, for example).

But with the pandemic still raging and worries that holiday gatherings will lead to even more infections, market participants are anxious about the timeline on widespread inoculation and herd immunity.

Last Sunday, Moncef Slaoui, head of the US government’s cartoonishly-named “Operation Warp Speed,” projected that “70% or so” of the population could be immunized “somewhere in the month of May.” (As an aside, Slaoui told Politico this week he might step down from his role as early as next month.)

In a note dated Thursday evening, Goldman attempted to “forecast monthly vaccinations for the large advanced economies,” no easy (or precise) task, to be sure.

“We use monthly global production projections from our health care equity analysts for Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and Johnson & Johnson,” the bank said, noting that “the projections assume that production gradually rises in early 2021 and achieves the announced targets.”

Goldman, Ipsos

The bank incorporated purchase agreements and options across countries, and analyzed survey responses from Ipsos to tackle the demand side question which, for some, is the more vexing quandary. “This survey suggests that most people expect to wait some time before taking it, consistent with wanting to learn more about safety, side effects, and effectiveness,” the bank said, recapping, on the way to suggesting that demand is probably more elevated now than it was in October, due to the release of positive trial results from Pfizer and Moderna.

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