News / Forwarders warned as Mexico faces US penalties over oil for Cuba

© Tomasragina

Freight forwarders moving Mexico-origin cargo into the US could face new tariff risks, after a White House executive order created a mechanism to impose additional duties on imports from countries found to be supplying oil to Cuba. 

This week, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, appeared to confirm the cancellation of an oil shipment to Cuba – and the executive order (EO) appears to be Washington’s way of cementing that pressure by turning oil deliveries into a potential trade penalty that could hit major exporters into the US. 

The EO, signed yesterday and effective from today, declares a national emergency and sets out a framework under which US agencies can determine whether a foreign country “directly or indirectly” sells or provides oil to Cuba – and if so, recommends additional ad valorem duties on its exports to the US. 

While the EO does not name specific countries, Mexico has been widely seen as the most exposed, given its role as a key supplier of crude and petroleum products to Cuba in recent months, and the confirmation that at least one shipment has been cancelled adds a new layer of uncertainty.

Mexico may be trying to limit its exposure, but the US has now created a mechanism that can be applied to any country deemed to be supplying oil to Cuba, regardless of how politically sensitive those exports may be. 

For decades, Venezuela was Cuba’s dominant supplier, with deliveries still estimated at about 46,500 barrels a day in December, before being cut off. Mexico stepped in as the key supplier last year, with reported shipments averaging around 17,000 to 20,000 barrels a day before the recent pause. Other suppliers have been more sporadic: Russia and Algeria have also sent oil to Cuba, but in far smaller and less regular volumes. 

If the US government makes a formal finding that Mexico is providing oil to Cuba, the implications for logistics could be immediate, with additional tariffs potentially applied to Mexican imports into the US across a broad range of commodities.  

The EO’s reach is not limited to direct oil shipments: it also includes ‘indirect supply’, defining this as providing oil through intermediaries or third countries where there is knowledge the oil may ultimately be provided to Cuba.

That creates a wider risk picture for supply chains. 

For the freight market, the key issue is uncertainty. The EO establishes a process rather than an automatic tariff increase, but it gives US agencies broad scope to identify countries, recommend duty levels, and adjust the approach if circumstances change.

It also includes an explicit retaliation clause, allowing modifications if countries respond with countermeasures.