The Loadstar Leader: Bullyboy tactics in a once tropical playground

Photo: © Marcio Silva

What is going on in Cuba?

It is a question no doubt being asked across the world as the drumbeats for yet another Trump-induced foreign invasion grow louder. And if it is anything like his foray into the Persian Gulf, it is unlikely to mitigate the sheer chaos in global supply chains at present.

Of course, it goes without saying that the present state of play in the Caribbean island is untenable – an economic siege has laid waste to a country that less than a decade ago was beginning to open up to the world following years of sanctions.

That opening, which followed the willingness of the Obama administration to speak to the Castros, did not last long. As with most of Obama’s achievements, as swiftly as they had been implemented, they were reversed by President Trump during his first term.

Since then, a sanctions regime has been starving Cubans of food and external support beyond their reliable, decade-long partnerships. That Venezuela was one of those was not a good omen – the US went in and unilaterally toppled President Maduro, hauling him off blindfolded and in leg irons. Indeed, the sanctions against the island only ramped up.

But it was sanctions introduced at the start of this month that may prove decisive – decisiveness contained in their ambiguity. This week The Loadstar reported that Hapag-Lloyd, responsible for 60% of Cuba’s containerised volumes, would suspend services to the country. CMA CGM followed.

Tellingly, the logic behind that was somewhat oblique. Hapag-Lloyd said it was “currently assessing the situation to determine whether, and under which conditions, services to and from Cuba may continue in the future”.

That lack of clarity has left The Loadstar guessing as to the logic of the suspension. Taking a stab in the dark, it may be a particular provision within the US sanctions that left the carriers sweating.

It reads: “Sec. 2.  Sanctionable conduct.  (a)  All property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States persons of the following persons are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in…

“…to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to, or in support of, the government of Cuba or any person whose property or interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order.”

What would constitute support in the Trump administration’s eyes? Providing food to a desperate population? Provision of medical supplies to a desperate population? Another question is whether the carriers pulled their services over fears that war is coming to the Caribbean island.

Efforts to find someone with expertise on the matter have, thus far, been in vain – if you’re reading this and have expertise on Cuban supply chains, please get in touch. Indeed, possible points of contact have declined to comment over fears that even that could land them in trouble.

So, what is going on in Cuba?