News / EU to end de minimis: but as one ecommerce door closes, another will open

© Iaroslav Tymonko

The EU has voted to end de minimis exemptions on imports – but not for three years.

Goods worth less than €150 will be eligible for customs duties once the EU customs data hub is up and running, expected in 2028. 

Meanwhile, ministers have also pledged to find a temporary solution to the problem that some 65% of parcels are estimated to be undervalued to avoid taxes.

And this is not just a fiscal problem, or a competition issue – but also an environmental one as cheap goods are flooding into the EU, 91% of which come from China. 

The temporary solution has not yet been announced, but the EU said a halt on de minimis could come as early as next year. 

“I am very pleased that we have reached an agreement on eliminating the €150 customs threshold. We ensure that duties are paid from the first euro, creating a level playing field for European businesses and limiting the influx of low-cost goods. We also agreed on the need to work towards a temporary solution as soon as possible in 2026,” said Stephanie Lose, Danish minister for economic affairs. 

As has been seen in the US, however, where ecommerce is on the rise again, it won’t stop the flow, just change it. 

Today, for example, Chinese ecommerce logistics company J&T Global Express said the ‘Double 11’ day in China, as well as sales for Black Friday, gave it 9% year-on-year growth, with average daily parcel volume between November 1 and November 12 up 15%, to 94.59 million, led, it said, by growth in South-east Asia, and new markets – up 78% and 83%, respectively. 

And there is no doubt that ecommerce rush has also lifted airfreight rates.  

According to Freightos Terminal, the FAX global index is at its highest point since December last year. 

Markets on the move include Greater China to North America, which saw a huge dip in October, down to $4.05 per kg, but has climbed now to $6.55, a near 62% rise. South-east Asia to North America has been steadily rising over the past month, from $4.79 to $5.49, up nearly 15%.

South-east Asia to the EU has been climbing since September, and is now at $4. Greater China to Europe is less strong, having spiked in October it has now fallen back to $3.92. The transatlantic westbound is also up 35% from a month ago – although the return leg has remained flat. 

In general, rates are a bit lower than this time last year, even though, as Freightos analyst Judah Levine said on a webinar yesterday, “we know that volumes are much stronger”. 

He explained: “This is probably because of the agility in capacity moving to other lanes. We see something similar for South-east Asia to Europe. Some of this peak season increase is here, but overall rates have been strong throughout the year, without any big surges as we might have expected, again because of that mix of supply and demand. 

“Despite these significant volume shifts, we haven’t seen sharp rate increases … that likely reflects that there’s been pretty agile, and pretty quick, shifts of capacity from those areas where demand is falling to those lanes where volumes are growing.” 

So, as one ecommerce door closes, another will open. And air cargo will continue to thrive – so long as it adapts.