News / Early CNY factory shutdowns front-loading air cargo flows

© Yuru Herasimenka |

Early Chinese New Year factory shutdowns are front-loading air cargo demand into January, even though underlying demand remains relatively soft. 

Market intelligence from FreightRight shows that the traditional pre-Chinese New Year shipping surge has failed to materialise in ocean freight this year.

“Traditionally, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year see a 50–70% spike in volume; however, that surge has not materialised this year,” the forwarder said, adding that “importers simply are not buying at the expected levels”. 

Factory behaviour has also diverged from past patterns. Rather than pushing buyers to clear inventories ahead of holiday closures, “factory floors are currently not ‘flooded’, and manufacturers are ready to close without a final shipping rush”, FreightRight said. That shift has removed a key late-January volume driver and left ocean carriers struggling to enforce higher rates. 

While ocean markets cool, air freight has followed a different, though still restrained, trajectory. Metro Shipping said in a market update dated 21 January that “early January data shows a sharp rebound in demand”, with worldwide air cargo tonnages rising by more than 25% week on week in the first full week of the year and chargeable weight running around 5% ahead of the same period in 2025. 

FreightRight said China-US air freight rates were holding at elevated but capped levels, with pricing to the US West Coast “hovering between $4 and $5 per kg”, and east coast lanes slightly higher. While rates have risen since the start of January, “they have not yet reached the ‘sky-high’ levels seen in previous peak seasons, largely due to overarching weakness in broader US demand”. 

That weakness is limiting how far air rates can rise. FreightRight said expectations that pricing could reach $7–$8 per kg ahead of Lunar New Year “haven’t materialised because the volume simply isn’t there to support such a spike”. 

Capacity behaviour is emerging as the critical factor shaping the market. Metro Shipping said freighter operators had begun reinstating services scaled back after the year-end peak, with freighter capacity rising by more than 15% week on week in early January, although “overall global capacity still remained around 7% below mid-December levels”. 

WorldACD data broadly supports that view, showing a strong early-January rebound in volumes but easing rates, pointing to capacity returning faster than demand. Rotate’s freighter capacity data also shows global air cargo capacity broadly flat year on year in mid-January, but more than 30% higher than in the first days of the month, underlining how quickly freighter networks were reactivated after the year-end peak. 

FreightRight highlighted how that returning capacity is being absorbed unevenly.

“Large entities, specifically Tesla and major ecommerce platforms, are consuming a massive portion of available plane space,” it said, describing a “big fish vs small fish” dynamic in which manufacturers prioritise high-value, high-volume customers ahead of smaller shippers.  

At the same time, “compressed manufacturing windows” ahead of earlier-than-usual factory closures are encouraging shippers to move cargo sooner, concentrating uplift into a narrower time frame.  

This seems to chime with data from NorthLink Aviation at Anchorage Airport. As one of the world’s busiest freighter hubs, ANC has seen rising arrival volumes through January, but more notably an increase in peak concurrent aircraft movements and longer congestion overnight, as capacity returns, although average ground handling times have remained broadly stable.  

Ocean carriers are facing an “uncomfortably cool” market that FreightRight expects to persist through February, while air freight remains firm largely because it is absorbing high-value, time-sensitive cargo moved early by major shippers.  

As Metro Shipping put it, the early-2026 reset “reflects seasonality rather than a structural downturn”.