News / Carriers bid for Asia-Europe pre-CNY rates push – but will new GRIs hold?

ID 120730628 © Tsvibrav

Ocean carriers are keen to “keep pushing increases” on the Asia to Europe trade, ahead of any potential rate war.  

One shipping source told The Loadstar MSC had announced a general rate increase (GRI) for Asia to Europe at some $3,000 per 40ft HC for next month.  

Adding that they expected the same from other carriers, the next day the source noted that Hapag-Lloyd and HMM had followed suit, announcing a $3,000 Asia-Europe GRI for December. 

According to the source, the hikes are likely driven by companies shipping goods pre-Chinese New Year, creating a demand spike.  

“We’ve seen a surge of bookings for December, so there does seem to be higher demand,” they said, and warned that carriers were giving “almost only two-week validity” on spot/FAK rates, so they can “keep pushing rate increases through”. 

And it’s clear to see why. Recent analysis from Sea-Intelligence indicated that when the cyclical ‘supply versus demand’ factors lead to overcapacity, it always had the same result: “a freight rate war”.  

Sea-Intelligence said: “This was as predictable as clockwork. It was equally predictable that in the period leading up to the overcapacity, carriers would have a host of explanations why they would avoid a rate war this time around.”

Its October analysis found inflationary-adjusted rates on the Asia-North Europe trade some 17% below average 2019 levels. 

The analyst did suggest that the carriers’ “financial solidity” going into 2026 could mean they are not as critically dependent on cashflow as they were in similar cycles over past decades.  

“This gives them options in terms of mitigating a freight rate war,” the report said, but underscored that liners were also in this position in 2023, but still saw a “very rapid unwinding” of rate levels. 

And The Loadstar‘s shipping source wasn’t convinced that these Asia-Europe GRIs would be enough to prop up rates sufficiently, and predicted the GRIs would likely “slide a bit”, either before implementation in December or just after.