Liners feel the pressure as spot rates sink to pre-pandemic levels

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Ocean freight spot rates circling back to pre-pandemic levels and expected further “downwards momentum” will place carriers under pressure, according to recent analysis by Sea-Intelligence.  

“It cannot be said that rate levels are ‘high’ or ‘elevated’ anymore,” said the maritime intelligence company.  

Its analysis of inflationary-adjusted spot rates, according to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) from May 2012 to October 2025 across major trades, found Asia-Europe and Asia-USEC were “clearly below pre-pandemic, 2019 levels”, with Asia-USWC marginally above.  

Sea-Intelligence reported adjusted rates on the Asia-North Europe trade 17% below average 2019 levels, and to the Med 13% below, but neither have yet reached the nadir seen just before the Red Sea crisis.  

Source: Sea-Intelligence

It is a similar story on the Asia-USEC trade, which according to the analysis is 3% below the 2019 level. 

Meanwhile, the Asia-USWC lane has also “almost reached” the level seen pre-pandemic, at just 11% higher than the 2019 average rate, but is the only of the four trades that currently matches the level it saw just before the Red Sea crisis.  

Source: Sea-Intelligence

CEO of Hapag-Lloyd Rolf Habben-Jensen told The Loadstar earlier this year: “The reality is the spot market these days, because of everything that’s happening on the geopolitical front, is very volatile. And that means sometimes the rates go through the roof and sometimes they go down very quickly.” 

But the Sea-Intelligence analysis suggests the latter is the more likely fate for carriers.  

It projected a future of “substantial injection” of newbuild vessels, combined with a return to using the Suez route, would “inexorably lead to further downward momentum” for spot rates, which would “place the carriers under pressure”.  

Indeed, during an interview at TPM in March, Mr Habben Jensen highlighted the “cyclical” nature of the liner shipping business and explained that the market was “very much driven by supply and demand”.  

“So, if we run into a situation or a period where there is going to be significant excess supply, then rates will be under pressure. That’s just how the market functions,” he said. 

“Of course there will be periods where we have a down cycle… the pressure to then do something about that by either cutting capacity, laying off ships, sailing slow or scrapping is going to be higher,” Mr Habben-Jensen concluded.