Atlas Air weathers the storm well, but returns to beleaguered markets

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There’s an interesting analysis of Atlas Air’s position on Seeking Alpha. It recommends caution on AAWW stocks, in the belief that the good times for air cargo are over, and “conditions in core markets are depressed”. The analysis perhaps gives too much to the idea that cargo capacity is returning, while stating that passenger capacity is not, suggesting the writer doesn’t fully understand the market (although lower freight rates are indeed likely after the madness of this spring). And the jury is still out on whether the air cargo market is “beleagured”, as suggested in the headline (it’s been far, far worse). But the writer is stronger on his comments on the C-Suite and market confidence in the carrier. He noted that investors pulled out when Bill Flynn announced his retirement last August, but new gains are perhaps too early, he argues. “The underlying economics are not as solid as in August 2019, suggesting overconfidence in the market.”

He concludes: “We’d be cautious about the short- and medium-term future of Atlas Air and would probably pass on it for the sake of prudent risk management.”