News / Asia-Europe/transpac airfreight rates climb as market braces for peak-less Q4

Photo: DHL

Airfreight rates have started to climb on key trades – but there remains no expectation of a traditional peak. 

Average spot rates offered to The Loadstar by Chinese forwarders to Europe in week 43 have gone up by more than 13% in the past fortnight, to $4.05 – a rise of nearly 15% over the past six weeks, albeit with a sudden 4% decline after Golden Week. 

Istanbul has seen the largest rises, of between 8% and 10% in the past fortnight, to $7.06 in the lowest weight category. Zurich, Luxembourg, Milan and Oslo saw rates rise from China by between 6% and 8%, while the remaining key European airports saw rates rise between 2% and 4%. 

Asia Pacific to the US also saw a rebound, with a 7% increase in the week to 19 October, said WorldACD, with origin-China up 19% in the week, Japan up 16%, Taiwan up 7% and South Korea up 6%. 

However, it said spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe were flat in the week, while Freightos Air Index reported South-east Asia to the EU was trending upwards. 

“Those spot rate rises from Taiwan and South Korea to the US were, essentially, restoring rate levels that fell the previous week, but the increase from China to the US takes rates on that market to $4.90 per kg – their highest level since mid April,” noted WorldACD.  

“That most likely reflects pressure on capacity, in part due to importers attempting to front-load cargo ahead of threatened new higher US import tariffs on goods from China from next month – announced by the US on 10 October in response to restrictions by China on its ‘rare-earth’ exports.” 

WorldACD also noted the “extremely volatile market” from India to the US, which saw declines in weeks 40 and 41, but a bounceback in week 42 ahead of Diwali. 

“In comparison, tonnages from India to Europe recorded a +9% WoW increase in week 42, taking India to Europe volumes 11% up on their level in week 42 last year.” 

In tonnage terms, WorldACD noted a strong week on week recovery in Asia to the US, up 17%, with ex-China up 24%, Hong Kong up 22%, and Taiwan up 24%. Asia-Europe tonnages rose 14%,. 

“Looking specifically at China and Hong Kong to US, tonnages are below last year’s levels, whereas CN/HK to Europe tonnages are above last year – mainly reflecting diversion of CN/HK-origin ecommerce volumes from the US market to other destinations since the removal by the US of the de minimis exemptions on low-value US imports,” said the data consultancy. 

This rebound however is not expected to morph into a full peak. In yesterday’s Q3 earnings call, Kuehne + Nagel CEO Stefan Paul told investors: “What we see currently is that the volume, the market share gains will continue in the fourth quarter, especially in the area of the hard cargo, where we have been more successful than in the first. Ecommerce is going down further. So no support from ecommerce is to be expected, but there are two main verticals where we see nice growth, which is the perishable and the hyperscaler semiconductor market, which is going to continue.” 

(A hyperscaler is a company that provides massive-scale cloud computing services through a global network of data centres) 

He went on: “But what is clear, there is no peak season to be expected. So no additional support in the marketplace, but we would estimate the same growth pattern in the fourth quarter, which we have seen in the last two. On yields, I would say, stable yields and no further deterioration in terms of the gross profit per unit is concerned.” 

Those verticals could be seen in K+N’s Q3 numbers, which saw airfreight volume growth of 7% year on year, driven, it said, “by strong demand in semiconductors and perishables, partially offset by decline in ecommerce”. 

DSV, meanwhile, saw air volume growth rise 64% following the acquisition of DB Schenker, but admitted that its organic growth was below the market, after DSV jettisoned low-yielding volumes.

“The technology vertical contributed strongly to the growth, while continued downtrading was seen in the automotive vertical,” it added. Yields rose 10% year on year, driven by tech and pharma, it said. 

DSV also thinks Q4 won’t see a strong peak. It said: “Due to the current market environment, we expect global air and sea volume growth to remain below GDP growth in Q4 25.” 

Airlines appear to be expecting rate rises, and have put on more capacity. Global freighter capacity rose 9% last week over the previous week, with notable rises on the transpacific, up 19.5%, Asia-Europe up 16%, and North America to Europe up 3% – but down 4% on the westbound leg, according to Rotate.