Comment / Analysis: days of reckoning loom for AP Møller Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd

05/11/2018

Let me begin today’s column with some special praise for five of my industry sources, whom I’ve nicknamed Mr Big, an industry executive (North America); T Island, supply chain specialist (APAC); Oasis, industry finance veteran (Europe); The Doctor, a freight forwarding innovator (North America); and Sunshine (Europe), a freight forwarding veteran.

With 127 years’ market experience between them, what they also have in common is that, little by little and from very different perspectives, they have added immense value to the debate surrounding ...

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chas deller
November 05, 2018 at 2:34 pm
Another excellent and well presented view point.

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- Ale Pasetti
  November 05, 2018 at 9:15 pm
  Many thanks, Chas. Much appreciated!
  
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Gary Ferrulli
November 05, 2018 at 3:34 pm
While there is no question about 2018 being a less than stellar year for carriers, primarily due to their own poor decisions on 2018 and 2018/2019 Contracts,
you seem to take the Asia/Europe market as the only one in the world. It is
of course extremely important, but so is the TP and Intra-Asia. Are those two,
which are larger than Asia/Europe, with their very high spot market rates,
enough to offset the Asia/Europe issues? We’ll know in February/March not
next week.

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- Ale Pasetti
  November 05, 2018 at 9:14 pm
  You are right, it’s better elsewhere, but I opted for “it does not look good elsewhere, as global growth projections come under strain.” In other words, I have normalised the rates. So, it doesn’t look good anywhere, given the input costs and mix, IMO. Thanks, GFERRULLI.
  
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Ale Pasetti
November 08, 2018 at 7:17 am
(8 Nov) ON A ROLL: Hapag Q3 out, 10% ebitda beat, €0.64 quarterly EPS vs ~ €0.40 expected; 9M EPS @ ~ €0.03 (9M 2017: €0.05). Still, ROIC @ 3.2% vs ~ 8% WACC, net debt unchanged @ €5.6bn, while FcF is lower y-o-y, but healthy, as it keeps a lid on staff costs, down 7.3% below half a billion euros y-o-y.

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