News / Air cargo peak? What peak? But we're 'very, very busy', says market

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Airfreight is not experiencing a ‘peak’ season – but is certainly enjoying a busy and high yield environment in a far more stable market, which is expected to carry on through January. 

Despite high expectations of a super busy Q4, heralded by the early peak in ocean shipping, air cargo has not seen a particularly marked end-of-year high. 

However, noted Jan Krems, president of United Cargo, at Tiaca’s ACF in Miami this week: “Tonnage-wise for us, October was the best month in the history of the United. We don’t see a real peak, but it is very, very busy. 

“Looking forward, every time we think there will be a peak, or every time we think something will happen, it’s much more steady than I ever saw before. And that’s why I also think that in quarter one it will be pretty much steady.”  

He added: “I was very, very worried when quarter three started, but then we saw an uptick of yields. So now we’re in quarter four, looking ahead, I’m really confident – 2024 will be a fantastic year for us, and 2025 will have a very good start.  

“Slowly, we are also getting our capacity back in Asia. It’s still very very healthy.” 

DB Schenker said it too had not seen the anticipated peak. 

“We had a strong summer, which was unusual,” said head of airfreight Asok Kumar. “Based on that, we were expecting an exceptional season. And I’d call it a busy season, but I would not call it exceptional.” 

He added that he was not ‘disappointed’, just that a peak “had not come to fruition”. 

“If you take out ecommerce and look at the base industry, it’s not going as great as you would expect in normal markets. Nonetheless, when you look at the supply in the market, that’s still lacking due to various reasons. 

“Yields are still going up, which is, to a degree, positive. And then when I look at 2025, I guess I’m cautiously optimistic. The supply situation will continue to count – let’s see what happens on the demand side. It could be a tough period in terms of capacity management.” 

Despite the lack of a clear, sharp rise in rates, WorldACD said yesterday that global spot rates rose 5% week on week to 10 November. Rates out of Asia Pacific rose 6%, to $4.43 per kg, while out of Europe rates also rose 6%. Central and South American rates went up 10%, to $2.04 per kg. The only falls were from Africa, down 4%, and MESA, down 2%. 

But tonnage changes were less spectacular, noted WorldACD, at just 2% higher than last year’s week 45.  

“That’s a significantly smaller YoY growth figure compared with most weeks in the last six or seven months, although the comparison period this time last year was a tough one, as volumes were in the midst of a strong fourth-quarter peak season,” it added. 

“Weeks 44 and 45 were down 4%, compared with the preceding two weeks, including declines of 8% from MESA origins and 5% from Europe and Africa origins.” 

Meanwhile, as expectations of a port strike on the US east and gulf coasts increase, air cargo could be in for a bumper January – if there is sufficient capacity, added Mr Krems.