News / Warning to shippers as they negotiate 2026 contracts: 'don't blink first'

Shippers are likely to negotiate more favourable contract rates and improved terms with carriers and forwarders for next year, according to lawyers and consultants.  

The Drewry East-West Contract Rate Index – an average of contract rates paid by more than 100 multinational shippers on 17 major ocean routes – in September saw its first year-on-year reduction since July 2024. 

Source: Drewry Benchmarking Club

The decrease was only 3%, and the Drewry index for September was still 25% above the 2019 benchmark. However, the consultancy pointed out that this marked a reversal of the trend in ocean contract rates.

“This modest decrease will be followed by significant contract rate reductions as 2026 contracts are put out to bid and negotiated,” it predicted. 

James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers’ Forum, told The Loadstar: “Shippers need to see through shipping lines’ short-term price inflation tactics ahead of negotiating season. 

“They can’t keep all those ships idle for long. Get some good data and don’t blink first!” he advised.   

And one shipping source told The Loadstar: “[Carriers are] hoping to extend this year’s rates, but the reality is it’s likely to be softer. Not sure how much it’ll drop, though, at this stage.”

Chantal McRoberts, director of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, pointed out that this was not just about rates.  

“Other than the prospect of lower contract rates for shippers, the other important aspect of bid strategy for 2026 contracts is risk management and resilience,” she urged.  

She noted that when the ocean freight market is tight, carriers often push for higher contract rates, reduce their commitments, and demand greater volume commitments from shippers.  

“However, when the pendulum swings in favour of buyers, shippers then gain leverage to secure better terms across rates, ancillary costs, space, terms and service quality.” 

Drewry advised shippers to review their carrier contract language to include longer payment terms, increased service quality commitments and clauses to control surcharges, such as detention and demurrage. 

And Matthew Gore, partner at law firm HFW, told The Loadstar: “For 26/27, shippers should not only be able to negotiate more favourable freight rates, based on current spot levels and those expected to the end of 2025, but also favourable terms on surcharges. 

“It’s likely carriers may be more accommodating to get shippers signed up for 26/27,” he added. 

Mr Gore advised that shippers might seek to include market rate review provisions to reset freight rates mid-term to “guard against the market falling further”, either using a fixed-rate or index-linked contract.