News / US industry hopes for calmer new year, but fears growing regulatory zeal

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North American BCOs and logistics providers are hoping for a less-turbulent 2026, but there are still multiple hurdles looming.

The air cargo sector could suffer a hit as early as January, if the polarised US legislative triggers another government shutdown, warned Brandon Fried, executive director of the US Airforwarders Association.

While flight reductions would affect regions before spreading to widebody operations, there would be immediate repercussions with government agency dealings, such as getting certifications or permits.

Moreover, the frail state of the air traffic control system stands to show impacts from a shutdown.

Stan Wraight, president and CEO of SASI World, is not worried about that, but says the system is under strain from soaring passenger volumes congesting airport gates and slots.

Nevertheless, he is upbeat on the outlook for the global air cargo industry (less so in the US on account of Washington’s trade policies), particularly the expansion of e-commerce and its need for speed, stressing that this extends beyond low-cost merchandise to high-value consumer goods like iPhones, as well as to the B2B segment.

“We’re likely to see volumes globally continue to grow,” agreed Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, adding that the shifts in flows seen this year will continue.

Mr Fried is concerned that flows and processes may be affected by new moves by the US government, citing signals of tighter security regulations at the Department of Transportation and Transportation Security Administration (TSA), as well as changes at Customs.

This may be exacerbated by the TSA leadership changes during the past year, which means new regulations are being written by new officials who lack operational knowledge.

“If changes on the ‘known shipper’ programme occur, this would shift more cargo to freighters,” Mr Fried added.

On the road, Washington’s regulatory zeal is set to change the US truckload market profoundly. The push to weed out immigrants through the elimination of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licences (CDLs) and the English Language Proficiency programme threatens to shrink the driver pool drastically.

Estimates range from 214,000 to 437,000 CDLs falling out of the market – between 5% and 12% of the driver pool.

“Significant supply-side regulatory enforcement and trucking capacity reductions are affecting inland transportation,” warned Paul Brashier, VP global supply chain at ITS Logistics.

This points to rising trucking rates after three years of rate weakness, despite projections of tepid freight demand in the coming year.

While US consumers have continued to spend, retailers have warned that tight finances, aggravated by fears of job losses, point to weakening sales. The National Retail Federation projects containerised imports to fall by more than 10% in three of the first four months of 2026 (declining 8.5% in February).

Costs are expected to rise as the full impact of tariffs unfolds. In the first six months since their implementation, companies passed on about 35% of the costs, but this may rise to 55%-65% this year, reckoned Neale Mahoney, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Research.

He added that 50% of US imports were intermediate products, which meant higher input costs for the products they are used for.

As the tariff landscape settles, firms will have more visibility to embark on strategic planning and execution, although several industry executives warn that uncertainty will remain an obstacle.

The Association for Supply Chain Management (ASCM) envisages a shift in gears, believing “the era of managing disruption is over”.

“The global supply chain environment has structurally shifted, forcing companies beyond recovery and into a phase of intelligent transformation,” it said in its predictions for 2026.

Part of the transformation will involve combining human expertise with technology, notably AI, the ASCM reckons, and urges supply chain organisations to address the digital skills gap.

ASCM CEO Abe Eshkenazi wants to see a stronger focus on developing “critical thinking and problem solving skills” to mesh with technology and analytics.

A more settled economy and trade relations, coupled with easing interest rates and a modest rebound in freight volumes should inject new life into mergers and acquisitions, according to PwC. Its US Deals 2026 Outlook predicts M&A activity “will be shaped by strategic repositioning, timing, regulatory clarity, and the ability to modernise operations through targeted acquisitions”.

While its analysts see specialised players like healthcare or temperature-controlled providers, as well as technology-led solutions, in high demand, they noted that the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern to create a transcontinental carrier would drive M&A momentum across the rail ecosystem.

For shippers worried about deterioration of service from a UP-NS marriage, these prospects are unlikely to offer much cause for optimism.