News / Trucker shortage set to surge as US clamps down on 'illegals' at the wheel

© Diego Vito Cervo | Dreamstime.com - Trucking industry

US trucker numbers are set to decline further over the coming weeks, as Washington’s push to weed out illegal immigrants and drivers with inadequate English language skills from the industry kicked into full gear yesterday.

In April, the White House issued an executive order to place drivers who fall short of English language proficiency requirements out of service. The following month, transportation secretary Duffy followed up with an executive order issuing formal English proficiency guidelines for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

Legislation is currently before the Senate to codify the policy into law and, as of yesterday, drivers can be banned from service with immediate effect, likely leaving their trucks stranded.

The impact on the trucking industry could be significant. According to one estimate, as many as 10% of truck drivers could fall short of required proficiency levels.

A combination of relatively low wages, poor working conditions and unsafe equipment in many firms has drawn immigrants with limited job skills to the sector. On the employer side, the long downturn and downward pressure on margins and costs have prompted firms to recruit drivers without work permits and/or low English language levels in an effort to reduce costs.

Additionally, according to a recent study by trucking expert Adam Wingfield, 4% of US truck drivers do not have valid commercial driver’s licences (CDLs).

In light of the long-standing driver shortage in the US industry, a massive reduction of the driver pool could have serious repercussions including capacity bottlenecks, increased tender rejections and higher rates.

According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the industry has a shortfall of 60,000 drivers, which could balloon to 82,000 by the end of the year.

The issue is controversial. Adherents to the shortage theory point to high turnover rates and an average driver age of 47-49 years, but sceptics point to 1.7 million active CDL holders on the FMCSA register, and the fact that more than 400,000 CDLs have been issued every year.

“If we had a shortage of drivers, there would be freight sitting around that doesn’t get picked up, but that’s not the case,” commented Satish Jindel, president and founder of ShipMatrix and SJ Consulting.

“The ATA is a broken record,” he added. According to him, the trucking interest group keeps beating the drum on the theme for the sake of its own agenda, namely getting Congress to permit larger trucks on US roads.

He dismissed the argument of high turnover rates (over 85%, by some estimates), arguing that drivers who leave a firm end up working for another. As drivers are paid by the hour or the mile, there is no longevity of employment, except in the small number of unionised carriers, he said.

The current downturn in the sector, which started in May 2022, has blighted demand to a point where a diminished driver pool does not have much of an impact. In the absence of strong competition for drivers, large trucking firms have upped their requirements for driver qualifications, said Mr Jindel.

“Because of the safety requirements and the cost of an accident because of nuclear verdicts in court cases, companies have become very careful in driver recruitment,” he explained, adding that they already filtered out candidates who display insufficient command of English in job interviews.

For smaller companies the temptation to hire drivers with insufficient skill sets may be higher, but they can afford to be pickier in the current slow market, he said.

Hence, he does not anticipate a driver shortage as a result of the strict enforcement of language proficiency requirements.

“There won’t be a shortage of drivers for a year or more,” he said.

Another question is whether the FMCSA will have the manpower to enforce Washington’s tougher stance. Faced with the mandate to cut costs, the agency plans a 7% reduction in its workforce.