News / Tariff refunds could hit $500bn – 'terrible for the treasury', says Bessent

ID 106623037 © Igor Zakharevich

Potential tariff-related refunds could reach $500bn by the time a decision is made by the US Supreme Court on their legality, but stakeholders are pessimistic about the possibility of getting their money back.  

US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said he was “confident” the Trump administration would win its battle against a US appeals court that determined that he majority of Donald Trump’s tariffs were illegal and overstepped the president’s power. 

The administration has appealed to the Supreme Court for a final ruling and requested it hears the case on an expedited basis – in normal circumstances, the Supreme Court ruling wouldn’t be be expected until early next summer. 

But Mr Bessent said delaying a ruling until then would see some $750bn-$1trn in ‘reciprocal’ tariffs having been collected. 

“We would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the treasury,” he said.  

Indeed, one US importer told The Loadstar: “If there would be refunds, then everyone would seek them. It’s a lot of money.” 

But they added that they were “pessimistic”. There is a Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court of six judges out of the nine.   

The Trump administration has argued that the tariffs were justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). 

“We have reached a tipping point in terms of our trade balance. That is what has created the emergency situation, and we are trying to bring the trade into balance,” said Mr Bessent. 

The Appeals Court ruled on 29 August, however, that this was not the case.  It said: “We are not addressing whether the president’s actions should have been taken as a matter of policy. Nor are we deciding whether IEEPA authorises any tariffs at all. Rather, the only issue we resolve on appeal is whether the trafficking tariffs and reciprocal tariffs imposed by the challenged executive orders are authorised by IEEPA.   

“We conclude they are not.” 

Mr Bessent said that should the Supreme Court rule against the administration, it would “have to” refund the tariffs, but he added there were “numerous other avenues” the administration could then take.