News / Supreme Court may declare ruling on tariff legality tomorrow

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The US Supreme Court has scheduled tomorrow as an “opinion day”, indicating that 9th January 2026 may see a ruling on President Trump’s global tariffs.   

The court hasn’t revealed which decisions are ready for release, only that rulings in argued cases are possible when the justices take the bench at 10am, but Bloomberg suggests a tariff decision is a ‘likely possibility’, given the court’s “expedited handling” of the case. 

President Trump reportedly told House Republicans this week: “We have a big Supreme Court case… I hope they do what’s good for our country. I hope they do the right thing. The president has to be able to wheel and deal with tariffs.” 

Under contention are his ‘reciprocal Liberation Day’ tariffs, which he enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose duties of around 10% to 50% on most imports from most countries.  

A report from Reuters, using CBP data, revealed that the administration faces having to refund more than $133.5b in collected tariffs from importers should the US Supreme Court declare the duties unlawful – the figure being assessed through to 14 December, when the agency issued its most recent statistical update. 

A likely outcome is perceived to be that the Supreme Court will uphold the lower court’s ruling that tariffs based on the IEEPA were illegal, with online betting firms Kalshi and Polymarket giving President Trump just a 30% and 23% chance of prevailing, respectively, versus around 40% on each platform prior to the arguments, when the justices signalled scepticism toward the tariffs. 

However, it is unclear whether the court will order refunds, if it deems the duties illegal, or leave that issue to lower courts or the federal government to sort out. 

But Stephanie Loomis, head of procurement, pricing, & commercial relations, ocean product, at Noatum Logistics, told The Loadstar a ruling in favour of the importer “does not necessarily mean an end to tariffs”. 

“Even if the court strikes down the IEEP tariffs, one thing is certain: this administration will implement more tariffs,” said Ms Loomis.  

She explained: “Trump is committed to tariffs, so expect him to implement more, using whatever means necessary.  New tariffs may mean more back and forth negotiations hammering an already exhausted importing community.  

“How chaotic this second round of negotiations will be could mean more ‘stop-and-start’ nauseating shipping peaks and valleys,” she warned.  

Meanwhile, President Trump has signed an executive order that withdraws the US from 35 non-United Nations (UN) organisations and 31 UN entities that he said operate “contrary to US national interests, security, economic prosperity, or sovereignty”. 

Among those is UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development), which promotes trade, investment, and sustainable development, particularly focusing on the needs of developing countries. 

While the full impacts are not entirely clear yet, America’s withdrawal from UNCTAD means the end of crucial funding from the country, and limits its ability to engage in global discussions, negotiations and trade-related issues.