Storm warning: another active Atlantic hurricane season predicted

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TT Club has been investigating the probability of the damaging extent of this year’s hurricane season affecting transatlantic trades

Another above-average season for Atlantic hurricanes is expected in 2025, reflecting the increasing volatility of global weather systems due to climate change. The forecast serves as reminder to ports, terminals and warehouses to check the robustness of their storm-preparedness procedures, as well as their insurance cover for extreme weather events and other weather-related natural disasters.

Colorado State University (CSU) forecast in April that there would be 17 named storms in the 1 June to 30 November hurricane season, three more than the 1991–2020 average, and these will last 85 days, 15 longer than normal.

Nine storms will go on to become hurricanes, two more than average, and four will be major hurricanes (see Figure 1). The forecast will be updated on 11 June, 9 July and 6 August.

CSU said sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are warmer than normal, but not as warm as the conditions that triggered the extremely destructive hurricanes of 2024. Swiss Re said in December last year that insured losses from hurricanes, thunderstorms and floods would reach over $135bn last year, with at least two-thirds coming from the US. It is the fifth consecutive year that natural catastrophe losses worldwide exceeded $100bn.

Losses from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which made landfall in Florida in September and October 2024 respectively, accounted for nearly $50bn of the insured losses alone. And global insured losses from severe thunderstorms, which again mostly affected the US, reached $51bn in 2024, second only to the $70bn paid out in 2023.

Safety procedures

The onset of the tropical storm season is a timely reminder for ports, warehouses and other transport and logistics operators to review, test and update their hurricane safety procedures to ensure all staff are familiar with the protocol. This applies to all coastal and inland facilities, particularly those along the Atlantic seaboard, the Caribbean and the Gulf coast.

As a part of a crisis management plan, it is important to ensure that personnel are aware of specific roles and responsibilities, including communication and escalation procedures.

While the path and extent of extreme storms are typically predicted several days in advance, giving operators valuable time to take action to prevent the worst damage, experience supports the need for constant vigilance concerning general operational standards. This includes ensuring that cranes are pinned and tied down when not in use and operators are instructed on actions to take where unexpected gusts of wind are experienced.

TT Club’s Windstorm II guidance handbook provides a comprehensive storm-preparedness checklist and an in depth consideration of the risks, together with risk mitigation strategies.

Below is a non-exhaustive list of actions that could be considered in advance of a forecast storm to protect personnel, assets and liabilities.

• Take empty container stacks down to two-high, laden containers to three-high. Form stacks in a pyramid format where possible.

• Do not stack containers in low-lying areas where storm surge flooding is common.

• Store small and loose equipment indoors.

• Housekeeping – remove all debris that could potentially cause damage if swept up in either storm surge or high winds.

• Where possible, minimise the volume of cargo on site – consider stopping acceptance of export containers in the days prior to the forecast storm.

• Clear debris from storm drainage systems, and ensure any pumps are fully operational.

• Review and test back-up systems such as unexpected power disruption (UPS) and back-up generators for essential and safety critical systems.

Summary 

The conclusion is that this season, in all likelihood, will be more active than the long-term average, though less severe than 2024. The time to consider exposure to such risks is always in advance: planning and preparation is vital to ensuring that personnel and property are protected and to maximise operational resilience.

While this article focuses on North American and Caribbean risks, winds gusting up to hurricane strength (Beaufort force 12 or 32.7 m/s) are not restricted to latitude, proximity to the coast or the season – they can happen anywhere at any time. As such, all ports, warehouses and other transport and logistics operators should be prepared, including checking they have adequate insurance cover for extreme weather events and other weather-related natural disasters.