News / Rush for tariff refunds expected – but it could take years

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All eyes are firmly on US tariff refunds, after an executive order suspending President Trump’s signature economic policy followed swiftly on the heels of the Supreme Court decision on Friday.

Consensus has formed around a baseline figure of $100bn having been collected in IEEPA tariffs before Friday’s executive order ruled them illegal, but there is uncertainty over how high the figure could rise, reports suggesting up to $300bn.

Whatever the amount, US Customs will likely have to repay it; trade lawyer Sandler, Travis, & Rosenberg stating: “The case will return to the Court of International Trade, which will have to decide an appropriate remedy, including if and how refunds should be processed.

“Because it is still uncertain whether protests will ultimately be required, and whether US Customs and Border Protection will refund IEEPA tariffs through protests without the need for litigation, we advise importers to protest liquidations to ensure availability of refunds.”

And with cross-party opposition to the Trump tariff regime, there has been swift legislative action after three Democratic Congress members introduced a bill, on the day of the Supreme Court’s decision, aiming to simplify the refund process.

Mark Neville, of law firm International Trade Counsellors, said: “Anticipated chaos, but let’s see what happens with this proposed sweeping tariff refund mechanism, which would simplify the refund process for all importers of record (despite its title focus on SMEs).

“The Restoring Economic Lifelines for Independent Enterprises and Family Businesses Act would require refunds within 90 days of enactment, apply to covered tariffs collected since 1 January 2025, and eliminate the need for individual applications or formal protests.”

Nonetheless, Mr Neville issued a note of caution, pointing out that even if the act were passed by Congress, “the chances of a presidential veto are very high, in which case the issue is whether there are enough votes for an override”.

Further to which, experts have stressed that “the Supreme Court did not just put money back in” to the accounts of importers, noting that the refund process was precisely that, procedural, even if an earlier Court of International Trade (CIT) decision removed certain prerequisites.

Pete Mento, director of global trade advisory services at Baker Tilly, said those seeking refunds would need to follow post-summary corrections for unliquidated entries, protests for anything inside the statutory window, and test cases at the CIT for closed entries.

“Your first priority should be understanding your entry universe. Open entries are the fastest path – remove the IEEPA duty through post-summary correction and let Customs reliquidate,” Mr Mento wrote on LinkedIn.

“Liquidated entries in the protest period move to bulk protests, which’ll likely be held while CBP waits for guidance. The real recovery effort, and where most of the dollars will sit, is the closed-entry population. That’s a litigation-driven process at the CIT and will take time.”

With Mr Mento noting it “is a multi-year recovery programme”, those SMEs that swallowed additional costs rather than pushing them onto customers and now find themselves struggling for cash-flow, will not be best pleased.

Even before this development, firms had been hoovering-up refund rights for as little as 10c on the dollar – an amount Flexport’s Ryan Peterson said had since risen to 50c on the dollar – amid concerns that SMEs could be the policy’s biggest losers.

Mr Peterson said Flexport had launched a service to file for refunds on the behalf of importers, “at a fraction of the price, and much faster”, than similar services offered by some international trade attorneys.

“We’ve built the world’s simplest tariff refund calculator. It’s free and you can start using it instantly. The calculator instantly calculates tariff refunds you’d be owed for any company, even the world’s biggest importers that would be owed billions of dollars in refunds,” he said.