News / MESA states benefiting as ecommerce booms and geopolitics dominate

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South and Central Asia and the Middle East are set to benefit from shifting ecommerce flows and geopolitical tensions, according to stakeholders at the Caspian Air Cargo summit. 

Goker Kose, president and CEO of Almaty International Airport, told delegates in Baku last week: “South Asia and Middle East are gaining a growing share in the air cargo business, and rapid transformation is happening because of a lot of geopolitical shifts and booming ecommerce.” 

He explained: “As a result of the reduction of the de minimis and the tariffs in the US, we see every day there is a growing demand in south and central Asian airports, already attracting substantial traffic… and we see a big wave of growth in front of us.” 

Vugar Mammadov, VP of CIS, Central Asia & Turkey at Silkway West Airlines, said aircraft traffic in the region had grown “steadily and significantly”, from 1.8m tons in 2020 to 2.5m tons by 2024, approximately a 40% increase. 

“The market has expanded every year, with momentum accelerating in 2024,” he said.  

Mr Mammadov cited high volumes of cross-border ecommerce as the driving force behind the region’s “strengthening role”. 

“The US clampdown on the de minimis ecommerce shipments from China in 2025 further shifted volumes towards Europe and the Middle East. For hubs in the Gulf, Turkey, and the Caucasus, this represents a unique tailwind, especially as Russian flight restrictions continue,” he explained. 

In particular, he highlighted Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as the fastest-growing markets, reflecting their “integration into new trade routes and rising ecommerce demand”. 

“A few years ago, the main trade within the region was coming from Turkey to the Caspian and the Caucasus. But for the past two years, it’s shifted, and the ecommerce out of China overtook this opportunity. The main cargo flow between the Caucasus and the Caspian region is coming from China,” Mr Mammadov continued. 

“Ecommerce is growing, and at the moment we see a yearly 4%-5% increase… Regions at the bridge between east and west, particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and emerging Central Asia hubs, are set to capture a disproportionately high share of traffic growth, making them prime areas for cargo fleet deployment, hub investment, and ecommerce logistics infrastructure,” he urged.  

Indeed, according to Mr Kose, hubs in the region have been “gaining more and more attraction”. 

“In Central Asia, lots of airports are positioning themselves and strategic partnerships are happening frequently, especially with the international carriers and Chinese providers of ecommerce products,” he said. 

“Clients like Qatar Cargo, Turkish Cargo, Atlas Airways, Silkway West, and Asean and Chinese carriers are all increasing their frequencies and requesting more and more slots and more services every day.” 

And, according to the latest weekly analysis from WorldACD, exports from the Middle East region have also seen an uptick recently.  

Air freight tonnage from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins to the US in week 38 rose 16% from the week before, and to Europe increased 1%.  

However, the data company highlighted that MESA-origin freight rates were still “well below”, 22%, last year’s “elevated levels”. 

Meanwhile, overall average worldwide rates rose 1% week on week to $2.44 per kg, as Africa, Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, and MESA all reported rises.