News / Ecommerce share of air cargo traffic still growing as capacity rebounds

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General airfreight shippers may have to wait until later in the year to enjoy favourable market conditions, warns Flexport, as ecommerce traffic continues to grow.  

In a recent freight market update, the forwarder revealed that last year, air cargo capacity recovered to 2019 levels for the first time. growing 6%. 

Franco Babini, senior air pricing associate at Flexport, noted that similar capacity growth was expected this year, while at the same time global air cargo demand predicted to grow in line with GDP expectations, at around 3%.  

“So this means that, for 2026, this is the first time we’ll have an unbalanced market in favour of the supply,” he said. 

However, Mr Babini warned that these ‘favourable conditions’ for shippers might not materialise for a while.  

After rates fell “pretty sharply” last month, a “strong rebound” on the Asia-Europe lane is expected in the second half of January, ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, starting 17 February. 

“Just as we experienced in 2025, ecommerce is still expected to be the primary driver shaping this new year peak.” 

Indeed, Philip Rauchhaus, head of region DACH & EMEA at Lufthansa Cargo, said: “The whole ecommerce thing, that kind of came out of nowhere… is still there. There’s actually predictions that by 2027, ecommerce will make up 30% of air freight volumes.” 

Flexport warned that meant general cargo would continue to compete directly with ecommerce for capacity, especially on the Asia to Europe and transpacific lanes. 

The “highly flexible nature” of ecommerce platforms allowed them to switch destination markets and capacity options day-by-day, Flexport explained, “further aggravating the unpredictability for general air cargo shippers”. 

It added: “This inherent volatility in a high-yield segment forces airlines to be extremely dynamic in their route planning and capacity deployment.”

It advised: “Monitor shifts in customs regulations, like US/EU de minimis changes that can redirect large volumes, and track the capacity deployment of major ecommerce platforms and carriers which dedicate capacity to them on your key lanes, as their dynamic needs will be the primary source of volatility.”  

On the transatlantic westbound route, Mr Babini highlighted that, despite the Christmas period price contraction, rates had already recovered to late November levels, and warned that capacity would remain “pretty tight” until late March “at least”, when carriers begin their summer schedules.