COP28: 'Climate change now a battle between a fossil future and a non-fossil one'

© Sergey Uryadnikov

What was last week regarded as a ‘semantic misunderstanding’ – including by your correspondent – has grown to become the pivotal conflict of COP28, with fury erupting at a draft agreement that makes no mention of ending reliance on fossil fuel.

Last week, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber provoked a firestorm of backlash after claiming there was “no science” to support the conclusion that an absolute cessation of fossil extraction was required, adding provocatively that it wouldn’t be needed “unless you want to take the world back into caves”.

Though clearly exaggerating, Dr Al Jaber’s view is unsurprising, for he is both CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and a political appointee of the UAE, which derives over 40% of its exports and 80% of its fiscal revenue from oil and gas.

As The Loadstar has explained previously, his remark was, technically, correct. Theoretically, if carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology and infrastructure could be developed, manufactured, commercialised and globally adopted at a speed unprecedented in history, ‘the science’ would be ambivalent on the continued extraction of oil, gas and coal.

Saudi Arabia has also agitated for CCS-aligned wording throughout the conference. But in the absence of scalable, or even particularly functional, CCS technology, the science seems unavoidably to support the conclusion that less, or no, fossil fuel extraction is required.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), was quoted in The Guardian as calling CCS a “fantasy”, insofar as it could be used to support further fossil fuel extraction.

Samoa’s Cedric Schuster, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, called the draft document a “death certificate” for his 39 constituent nations, at least a third of which stand to be under water, or otherwise uninhabitable, in the next few decades.

“We will not sign our death certificate,” said Mr Schuster. “We cannot sign-on to text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels.”

US special climate envoy John Kerry gave an uncharacteristically forthright – but still measured – response to the draft, calling it a “war for survival”. He added: “We’re not where we’re meant to be in terms of the text. Many of us have called for the world to largely phase out fossil fuels, and that starts with a critical reduction this decade.”

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock weighed in, too: “The need for urgency to replace and reduce fossil fuels in the power sector in this critical decade is completely missing. The language on coal contradicts EU energy policies and it allows for new coal power plants,” she said.

“Most of all, the context on fossil fuels misleads the world. It suggests that fossils can continue to play an essential role in our future. This sends a misleading signal to our businesses, to our markets.”

Graham Stuart, the UK’s minister of state for climate change, flew home this morning, leaving aides to negotiate.

However, in a Twitter/X thread this morning, Michael Jacobs, professor of political economy at the UK University of Sheffield, suggested a breakdown of negotiations for the first time in COP’s history could be a ‘net good’ for the environment.

“It seems more or less impossible now to get a wording that clearly calls for the ‘phase-out’ goal… the OPEC states won’t agree to it, and the UAE (a member of OPEC) won’t insist on it from the chair… What would be lost [by a breakdown] are – sorry, but this is true – various forms of words which are not binding and won’t materially affect any countries’ immediate behaviour,” he said.

“There’s actually been very little progress here on adaptation or finance, and certainly nothing forcing action… would anything be gained? Yes. It would be a much bigger global media story than a fudge. Front page news.

“The story: that climate change is now a battle between a fossil future and a non-fossil one.”

The Loadstar’s coverage of COP28 is sponsored by EVERGREEN LINE: leading the development of a sustainable global container transportation system

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