News / Container shipping reliability slips as port congestion takes its toll

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The recovery in global container shipping schedule reliability lost momentum last month, although there was a marked improvement through the second quarter.

According to Xeneta’s Global Reliability Scorecard, global on-time carrier performance averaged 39% in May, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, after rising from 36% in March to 37% in April. Average delays also fell, to 3.4 days, the lowest level since July 2025.  

However, Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at Xeneta, has warned that June saw the trend reverse, with on-time arrivals slipping two percentage points to 37% and average delays edging back up to 3.6 days. 

“Global on-time performance hit 39% in May… This was the closest reading to the 40% ceiling we’ve seen since December 2023,” said Ms Ozuygur. 

But she added: “June checked our collective optimism; no trade improved, on-time arrivals fell, 2pp to 37%, and delay crept back up to 3.6 days.” 

Keith Gaskin, MD and founder of ShiftX, said improving schedule reliability remained a difficult balancing act for carriers, amid  the persistent port congestion. 

“Capacity is only usable if it can be deployed, removed at the port, and loaded at the port efficiently and on time, and it’s been a huge issue this year,” he told The Loadstar Podcast. 

Among carrier alliances, the Gemini Cooperation continued to outperform rivals, averaging 69% on-time performance during Q2, with average delays of just 1.1 days. The Ocean Alliance recorded the biggest improvement, lifting schedule reliability by 15 percentage points, to 43%. 

However, Mr Gaskin warned that carrier efforts to maintain schedules may come at the expense of customers whose cargo was ready to ship. 

“I think some of the alliances are trying to work really hard to bring their schedule integrity to a much higher percentage, and to that end, we’ve seen sometimes the vessel just cutting and running, because it was delayed and they couldn’t turn around the containers on the port quick enough because of congestion. 

“So, on the one hand they’re trying to improve schedule reliability, but if you’re a customer that delivered your container on time ad did all your customs clearance; through no fault of your own, you may have faced rolling boxes because the carrier is trying to improve its schedule reliability. So it’s very difficult balancing act,” he explained.  

On the carrier level, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd led the field, with Q2 averages of 58% and 57% respectively, more than 10 percentage points ahead of third-placed CMA CGM’s 46%. Wan Hai was the only major carrier to perform worse than in the first quarter, falling six percentage points, to 15%. 

Despite the “stall in momentum” in June schedule reliability, however, Ms Ozuygur underscored that “the global recovery is real”. 

Source: Xeneta

Capacity management pressures appeared to ease during the quarter and global blanked sailings fell to 9% of planned teu in June, equivalent to around 890,000 teu, making it the first month this year to record fewer blanked sailings than in the corresponding month of 2025. 

Performance varied widely by tradelane. East Coast South America posted the strongest improvement, with schedule reliability jumping 17 percentage points quarter on quarter, to 54%, while West Coast South America reached 48%. Far East-Europe recorded the second-largest gain, climbing 14 percentage points, to 39%, while both the Far East-North America and Europe-North America trades improved by seven percentage points. 

“The Middle East was the obvious exception: on-time arrivals fell in May, even as every other trade improved, and the trade closed Q2 at just 25%,” Mr Ozuygur said. 

Mr Gaskin said congestion remained particularly acute in Northern Europe ports, with Rotterdam continuing to create knock-on disruption across networks. 

“I think people now just build-in a big buffer for some of these delays,” he added. 

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