News / Air freight contracts a challenge for shippers and forwarders in a tightening market

Photo: © Aleksandr Gerasimov

Annual air freight contracts are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain as market conditions shift decisively in favour of airlines and freight forwarders, according to Xeneta.

During a webinar, Adi Šunj, Xeneta’s lead customer success manager, said the tightening market and a growing reliance on spot purchasing were forcing both forwarders and shippers to rethink how they approached long-term pricing agreements.

“We typically define 80% as the shifting point between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market,” said Mr Šunj, referring to the company’s dynamic load factor metric, measuring aircraft capacity utilisation.

As capacity tightens, airlines gain greater pricing power, while shippers lose leverage in negotiations, he explained.

Companies that negotiated competitive annual contracts when market conditions were softer may now find those agreements increasingly difficult to maintain if they sit below prevailing market rates, he added.

“Understanding that your service may change, that you may not get the same service as you had in the past – given the increase in the delta between your position and the market high – I think is key,” he said.

This challenge for shippers is compounded by the growing proportion of cargo moving on the spot market outside contracts. Mr Šunj said Xeneta’s airline spot share data showed when forwarders were relying more heavily on ad hoc purchases rather than longer-term block space agreements.

“We’ve seen over time that when the airline spot share rises above 40% to 50%, or more, then it becomes not just significant pressure for the forwarder to move and buy their cargo, but also to align their contracts with their customers,” he explained.

He added that, when 70%-80% of cargo is moving under spot pricing, forwarders faced increasing uncertainty over future procurement costs, making fixed-price agreements with customers significantly harder to support.

“It creates pressure for both ends – the freight forwarder ensuring their capacity and price in the market, and also the shipper that needs to move cargo.”

Xeneta advised that the changing market dynamics meant shippers may need to reconsider how aggressively they negotiate annual contracts. Customer success manager Seth DeVary warned: “If they’re positioned at the market low, it’s significantly less likely that that long-term contract is going to be able to get honoured.”

Rather than focusing solely on achieving the lowest possible rate, Xeneta argues, shippers should understand where their pricing sits relative to the wider market, to balance cost against service reliability. And for forwarders, greater transparency around market conditions also helps explain rising costs to customers during periods of disruption.

“It becomes very difficult a lot of times to manage internally what’s happening in the market,” said Mr DeVary.

“With data, you can both look at the same information at the same time and ensure the stories are in line, the facts are in line, and that it’s easier to understand and find the best alternative and solution,” he concluded.