News / Red Sea comeback for liners unlikely before 2027

CMA CGM has been testing the waters, quite literally, adding further services to its Red Sea rotation, but there appears no great hope of a wider reversion of containership transits through the waterway before 2027.

The French carrier appears to have listed two vessels on its FAL1 rotation, CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin and CMA CGM Zheng He, to pass through Suez on their way back to China in an effort to offset congestion-induced delays in Europe.

Writing on LinkedIn, Zest Shipping Media’s Dennis Zhou noted: “This is still considered a one-off attempt for individual vessels; we will observe as it unfolds to see whether more ships will resume service via the canal.”

While other carriers have been prone to announcing plans to voyage through the Red Sea, they have tended to change their mind last minute and pursue a course around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, but CMA CGM has seemed more willing to risk a Houthi attack.

Part of this is likely down to the support provided by France’s navy, with warships escorting French merchant vessels through the Red Sea, with CMA CGM Jules Verne something of a mainstay on the waterway, having again passed through Suez last month.

Despite this, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said that, “put into the greater scheme of things”, CMA CGM’s extra sailings contrasted a broader trend, with transits having dropped month on month, from 180 in January to 131 over the first 26 days of October.

“For Bab el-Mandeb transits, it has been steadier January through to August, but there has been a clear falling tendency in September and more so in October, with 223 in January, 174 for September and 107 transits for 1-26 Oct,” Mr Sand told The Loadstar.

“Is a full-scale return near? Not if you judge it by the development in those numbers,” a position shared by Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen, who told The Loadstar he did not see other carriers “itching to go through there”.

Nor does Xeneta expect it to happen in 2026.

“In fact, it may just be a part of the successful push for higher spot rates into Europe, but also beyond, in the past month.”

Echoing others, Mr Sand said the Red Sea’s box ship future was largely in the hands of insurance companies and their risk assessment, claiming “they hold the keys more than any other stakeholder to the return of the maritime industry to the Red Sea”.

“The lack of insurance coverage for crew, ship and cargo is an essential factor,” he added.