News / Carriers wait as ceasefire becomes 'test window' for Hormuz reopening

Ceasefire agreed or not, the next five days will prove pivotal to the medium-term future of the Strait of Hormuz, with carriers wary of returning amid what appears to be a fragile truce at best, as Tehran warns vessels against transiting without permission.

Early yesterday, Iran and the Israel/US alliance agreed to suspend hostilities for a two-week period, but within hours the agreement’s details were being challenged as Israel upped attacks in Lebanon, and Iran indicated traffic could not flow freely in the strait.

Maritime intelligence agency Windward warned that this week would prove a “critical test window” for shipping lines when it comes to determining if they wish to return capacity to the region in such a brittle peace.

“If daily transits increase with no incidents, major operators will begin risk reassessment. 11–14 April is the decision window for blue-chip operators, contingent on ceasefire extension signals, IRGC posture and US Navy escort clarity,” it added.

Forwarders told The Loadstar they believed it was right to discount the words of the agreement and instead wait and see whether both sides respected the terms – “if one doesn’t, the other won’t”, one forwarder added.

Ocean and airfreight intelligence platform Xeneta said the two-week deal was not enough to assure the box shipping sector that a resumption of Hormuz operations was a smart move.

Senior analyst Destine Ozuygur said: “There are huge operational question marks over a return to the Strait of Hormuz if it effectively turns into an Iranian tollbooth,” And she questioned how much such a situation would cost.

“How will transits and payments be managed, and will this delay carriers returning services to the region? Could some ships be denied transit even if they are willing to pay? This kind of uncertainty is not good for supply chains.”

Alongside determining the extent to which the ceasefire is viable and likely to lead to a longer-term peace, carriers are also having to contend with congestion of goods destined for the Middle East as well as displaced capacity.

According to Xeneta, some 250,000 teu of weekly container shipping space has been routed to alternative destinations, which chief analyst Peter Sand said carriers had spent “a lot of effort and expense establishing”.

Ms Ozuygur added: “Weekly capacity to Jeddah and King Abdullah has increased 19% as carriers introduce services to connect the landbridge into the Gulf. Even with alternative routings, there is huge disruption at ports like Mundra, Nhava Sheva, and Khor Fakkan.

“That is not going to go away overnight. This ceasefire does not resolve that capacity displacement, it simply creates a brief opportunity to move the most urgent freight. The priority will be clearing frustrated cargo that has accumulated at alternative ports.”

And with Israel pounding Beirut – reports of 100 missile strikes in just a few hours – despite the truce reportedly including an agreement to cease attacks inside Lebanon, Iran warned vessels not to cross Hormuz without having received permission.

All of which only adds to carriers’ concern when it comes to working out how to organise their sailings, Mr Sand noted: “Carriers will be aware they risk ships becoming trapped in the Gulf again if there is a sudden deterioration in the security situation.”

Hapag-Lloyd, at least, agrees, noting that while “recent developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran are a positive signal… the situation in and around the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain”.

It added: “It is not yet clear whether the announced opening will be sustained. The safety of our crews and personnel ashore remains our top priority. Based on our current assessment, we will continue to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz for the time being.”