Comment / ANALYSIS: can CMA CGM stay afloat after NOL buy, or will it mean an IPO at last?

19/12/2016

From time to time, the family that runs French shipping line CMA CGM, the Saades, raises the possibility of listing the company on some stock exchange or other – most likely Paris.

The news is then excitedly reported by the shipping media, but these comments tend to come in isolation, and are then slowly forgotten.

It happened most recently when CMA CGM first announced it had agreed to buy Singapore firm NOL and its troubled container shipping arm APL, suggesting that once ...

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Dave
December 19, 2016 at 5:07 pm
Interesting analysis but wonder if at this stage only finances are be taken in account
That’s where the second spring of APL take over will trigger:
Temasek Holding refusing to see his PSA baby throughput endangered by the bad position of his French partner will inject cash. Equity, bonds… don’t know but the money is there not in Paris Stock Exchange where none has idea of what is container shipping. In short you can expect a management shift from Marseilles to Singapore
Then for Hapag, since German government forgot to retain Hamburg Sud, the best for them is to come under Maersk umbrella so that at least it remain a bit of Teutonic flavor in this behemoth line.
Rendez vous à l année prochaine

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- Ale Pasetti
  December 19, 2016 at 7:36 pm
  Dave,
  
  Thanks much for your comment.
  
  Could you clarify what you mean with “if at this stage only finances are be taken in account”?
  
  Otherwise, interesting take on a possible management shift — but how likely is that, really?
  
  Best,
  
  Ale
  
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David
December 19, 2016 at 5:59 pm
Very interesting article. Just pointing out that the 1st CMA financials chart shows 2015/2014, yet the text references falling cash flows in the current year.

On a lesser note, I think it is debatable that Hapag’s financial synergies with CSAV are fading. Despite the first 9 months of the year looking bad YoY, the 3rd quarter profit was quite strong, perhaps reflecting full realization of those synergies during a very challenging market. Just my opinion.

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- Ale Pasetti
  December 19, 2016 at 7:32 pm
  I have asked the editors to swap chart n. 2 from the top (2014-2015 financials) with chart n.6 (9-month performance in 2016). My bad, apologies.
  
  With Hapag it is clear, in my opinion, that most synergies were front-loaded, and the residual incremental benefits might be lower than expected, hence the purchase of UASC. Also, you should consider seasonality. That, at least, is what the financials and its operating performance indicate.
  
  Thanks much for your note.
  
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- Ale Pasetti
  December 19, 2016 at 7:37 pm
  David, charts have been fixed now — thanks much for flagging the issue.
  
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