News / China and the US find alternatives as their ecommerce airtrade plunges

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Despite the trade tension between the US and China translating into a decline in air cargo shipments between them, data indicates both have found sufficient alternative markets.  

Frederic Horst, founder and CEO of Trade Data Service (TDS), said Chinese ecommerce exports to the US “showed another big drop in June”. 

TDS data show low-value Chinese exports to the US down nearly 50% on the year before, with the YoY decline for the first six months of the year at 8%.  

However, the overall flow of Chinese ecommerce exports hasn’t slowed. China’s customs data shows a 38% increase for the first half of the year, and a 35% year-on-year rise in June, according to TDS. 

“It seems growth [in traffic] to Europe and Asia has compensated for the decline to the US,” Mr Horst told The Loadstar. 

And US importers have also looked to source shipments elsewhere.

Over the first five months of the year, TDS data show, air imports to the US were up 9.5%, or about 200,000 tonnes. The main sources of the growth have been in Europe, up 17.5%, or 112,000 tonnes, and Asia-Pacific, up 9.5%, 73,000 tonnes.  

“The drop from China has been more than compensated by an import increase from Vietnam and Taiwan,” said Mr Horst. He highlighted that this excludes de minimis shipments, which are not captured as part of normal customs statistics. 

Air imports from Vietnam into the US were up 44,744 tonnes year on year, and up 26,489 tonnes from Taiwan. At the same time, volumes by air from China were down 28,612 tonnes.  

Growth commodities largely comprised industrial equipment and parts, apparel and footwear, and computers and accessories.  

Indeed, Pierre Van Der Stichele, MD of French air broker Avico, told The Loadstar there were opportunities for charter tonnage providers particularly within the heavylift and outsize cargo segment, as well as in the pharmaceutical and humanitarian sectors.  

“The charter market remains active, albeit at a reduced pace compared with the pre-Covid period,” he said.

But he underscored that current geopolitical tensions and trade tariff disputes had brought “persistent volatility across global markets”, while EVP of cargo at Air Partner Jon Corbi added that, typically, “instability means increased charter demand”.  

“But we are in unprecedented times, so we are learning to expect the unexpected,” he added.