Tradelanes / Insight into Intra-Americas: South America-North America

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Airfreight volume from Central and South America to North America has declined in low single digits in recent weeks, accelerating to a 5% drop in chargeable weight in the two weeks to 4 July, compared with the previous two weeks, according to World ACD data.

Previously it had slipped, in 1% increments, from the preceding fortnight periods.

While capacity sank in 1% increments or was unchanged from the previous two-week periods, pricing on the sector has also slipped in low single-digit increments over the past three weeks.

To some extent these declines reflect the end of the perishables harvest season from South America, the sector which makes up the biggest share of outbound airfreight traffic from the region.

Within the broad picture lurk some distortions, though, noted Rene Genofre, airfreight director of logistics firm Allog, Brazil’s third-largest forwarder in terms of ocean cargo, and the leading player in the reefer segment.

He pointed to a surge in mango exports to Asian markets beginning in late May, notably to Japan and Korea. This traffic commanded rates of about $2 per kg, way above typical pricing for perishables exports from the region, which lifted the overall pricing picture.

Year-on-year pricing to North America sank 1% week after week through June, and continued into the first week of July, World ACD data show. But according to Mr Genofre, this does not constitute a decline in core airfreight traffic.

“This ‘downturn’ has been more of a recalibration to normal,” he said. “Last year a lot of traffic that would normally go by ocean, such as car engine blocks headed to Mexico, had to be shipped as airfreight, owing to lack of vessel capacity as well as containers.

“This triggered a lot of airfreight volumes last year. Now ocean is more stable, although the rates are still quite high.”

On the waves

According to Container Trades Statistics (CTS) data, sea freight volumes from Central and South America to North America were up by double-digiti amounts in the first four months in the year, but in May slowed to year-on-year growth of just 1.2%, as per the table below…

Source: Container Trades Statistics

… which, given that May was the first full month of the effect of tariffs on US-bound ocean shipments, could demonstrate that shippers were indeed adopting a wait-and-see approach.

In terms of pricing, northbound container rates, according to the CTS price index – which measures both contract and spot rates paid – were up 29.5% year on year in May, a slight increase on April, but down from the 40.2% year-on-year increases seen in January.

In the opposite direction, May freight rates were 4.1% higher than a year ago, while volume were erratic. May saw southbound volumes decline 15.1% year on year, to end at 216,100 teu, compared with April 2025’s volume of267,800, which was 8.2% above April 2024.

At the same time, ocean carrier performance in the trade has improved markedly in recent months. According to Sea-Intelligence, schedule reliability improved 8.3 percentage points in the April/May period over March/April to 68.4%, marking a 14.2% improvement year on year.

The previous month schedule reliability had reached 60.1%, up from 54.2% a year earlier.

Source: Sea-Intelligence

In April/May, the average delay in the CSAm-to-NAm tradelane shrank 0.57 days from the previous month, to 6.36 days, Sea-Intelligence reported. All but one of the major ocean carriers in the sector improved their schedule reliability.

Source: Sea-Intelligence

Southbound schedule reliability in the sector advanced to 76.7%, an improvement of 2.6% over April/May 2024.

A sense of normality

In its June market update for clients, Crane Worldwide Logistics reported that airfreight capacity, as well as demand from Latin America to the Americas, EMEA, North and South Asia, were all at normal levels. In the intra-Latin America trade, Mexico continues to be the only congested airfreight market, the logistics firm added.

Allog has not seen any significant change in its airfreight traffic.

“The market is flat, capacity is flat, and so are rates in the passenger bellies,” noted Mr Genofre.

He described the US market as stable, adding that there had not been any major challenges to find space in either direction.

However, the US move to end de minimis exemption for e-commerce originating in China has had repercussions in Latin America, as freighters carrying this e-commerce to Latin America are usually routed via the US – as a result, the cancellations of US-bound charters hauling parcels have had a knock-on effect on freighter capacity to and from South America.

Maindeck capacity out of Brazil is usually more expensive than belly lift, as freighters headed to the US stop en route in other Latin American markets such as Colombia to pick up flowers.

That traffic pays higher rates, so Brazilian exporters have to pay elevated rates to secure space to the US, Mr Genofre explained, adding that this has been an additional factor keeping the year-on-year rate decline in check.

He expects to see general outbound airfreight rates begin to pick up in August, when the next harvest season kicks in, and gather momentum in September as passenger schedules shift.

Nonetheless, he added, this should not produce a surge in outbound pricing, given demand and capacity conditions.