News / USEC dispute end comes too late to stop transpacific spot rate climb

Container spot freight rates on the main east-west trades continued on divergent paths this week, with gains on the transpacific routes offset by declines on Asia-Europe.

This week The Loadstar reported that signs of a new freight rate war on the Asia-Europe trades had kicked off at the beginning of 2025, as the year’s first indices showed prices on the wane at north European and Mediterranean ports.

“Maersk has again adopted an aggressive pricing strategy, quoting less than $4,000 per 40ft container for shipments in the latter half of January, prompting MSC to match the move with rates of $3,840, setting the stage for rate discounts from rivals,” said analyst Linerlytica.

“Carriers are rolling back their rate quotations in January with an eye towards filling their forthcoming sailings and building a roll pool for the post-Chinese New Year slack,” it added.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) this week confirmed the trend, with yesterday’s reading of its Shanghai-Rotterdam leg showing an 8% week-on-week decline, to $4,375 per 40ft, which also happens to be 1% below the same rate at this point last year, when the Red Sea crisis was getting fully under way.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Genoa leg declined 4% week on week, to $5,210 per 40ft, the same level as this time last year.

Meanwhile, on the transpacific routes ex-Asia to the US west and east coasts, the successful conclusion to the ILA-USMX talks appears to have come too late in the week to prevent further increases in spot rates.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles component jumped 13% week on week, to $5,476 per 40ft, some 96% up year on year, while the Shanghai-New York leg climbed 10% week on week, to $7,085 per 40ft, 70% up year on year.

According to freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, average spot rates from the Far East to the US east coast have increased 26% since 14 December, and were expected to rise further had the threatened strikes gone ahead.

“The agreement between the ILA and USMX must be welcomed, because a strike had the potential to be a supply chain and economic disaster. But it still highlights the difficulties facing shippers in managing supply chain risk,” said Xeneta senior shipping analyst Emily Stausbøll.

“We have seen average spot rates on the trade from the Far East to US east coast spike 26% since mid-December, to stand at $6,800 per 40ft, with carriers poised to add further disruption surcharges of up to $3,000 per 40ft if the strike had gone ahead.

“It is extremely difficult for shippers to protect supply chains and manage freight spend with this level of uncertainty and when the stakes are so high,” she added.

Significant further increases to Asia-North America container freight rates could be on the horizon for the end of the month, with a new series of general rate increases (GRIs) announced for 1 February implementation, ranging from $1,000 to $3,000 per 40ft depending on the carrier.

Ms Stausbøll suggested spot rates may fall before that date, but other supply chain threats would remain.

She added: “Looking ahead, it is likely spot rate growth will now soften on trades into the US from the Far East, suggesting a brighter outlook for shippers negotiating new long term contracts.

“Signs of a weakening underlying global market in 2025 are also seen in falling average spot rates from the Far East to North Europe, which had spiked 51% between 31 October and 1 December.

“Shippers must remain cautious, however, because it will not take much for freight rates to begin spiralling again, particularly given the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the return of Trump to the White House, which could escalate the US-China trade war,” she concluded.