News / US blockade 'won't change anything' for container traffic in the Gulf

Carriers are now contending with two choke points in the Strait of Hormuz, following the decision of Donald Trump to impose a US naval blockade on vessels heading to and from Iranian ports.

The US president announced his intent to further gum up the waterway after efforts to negotiate an end to Iran’s own hobbling of transits through the Persian Gulf failed – Tehran claiming its opposite numbers failed to win its confidence.

Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at Xeneta, said: “If you retained some cautious optimism last week, this is your confirmation that regional recovery for the Persian Gulf remains an abstract concept for the foreseeable future.

“From a purely commercial point, the chokehold is twofold – we’ve transitioned from an Iranian mandated tollbooth system to actively contested control between two warring nations. Now, the conditions for securing passage appear more opaque than ever.”

Despite adding to supply chain instability, Linerlytica said it did not expect the US blockade on the waterway to change the situation, that it would have no “material impact on container traffic through the Strait of Hormuz”.

Pointing out there had been 38 transits by box ships – 34 by Iranian-linked vessels – since the launch of the Israel/US war against Iran, it added that it would expect to see such vessels “continue to test the limits of the blockade”.

And the effectiveness of the blockade is being questioned, as it appears that Iranian-linked vessels have already made it past US warships, reports suggesting as many as four made it through in the first 18 hours.

Ami Daniel, CEO of Windward, noted that one Iran-flagged tanker had headed out of the Persian Gulf after turning around initially, and Chinese and UAE-related tankers were making their way towards Iranian ports.

Ms Ozuygur said: “Until now we were witnessing the fallout of how a regional conflict spilled over into a global commercial artery; now the strait itself is the most critical point of leverage in the ongoing war.”

That ships are moving may offer some positive signals for the market, with Linerlytica noting that having peaked at 1.4%, the total capacity of the containerships waiting in the Persian Gulf had dropped to just 1% of global operating capacity.

And the number of box ships waiting outside the strait had fallen to 0.2% of total container capacity, with carriers having “cleared most of the vessel backlog and redeployed ships away from the Middle East”.

Nonetheless, analysts at Upply have warned that the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz risked evolving into a structural shift for global container shipping, outlining scenarios that could reshape trade flows and supply chains.