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Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena may be sipping Irish whiskey as the looming tie-up with Norfolk Southern hangs over the North American intermodal scene, but his railroad proved the outlier in 2025 – the only carrier to report downturns in revenues and volumes.
It seems the final quarter of the year proved a bit of a kicker for UP, with a 10% drop in carloads, to 996,000 over the three-month period, leading to a 6% revenue decline, helping to eat away at full-year revenue (down 2%, to $7bn) and carloads (down 1%, to 4.1m).
Seemingly, no one on the UP investor presentation picked up EVP of marketing and sales Kenny Rocker making a mistake with his numbers when he said: “Premium [UP’s name for its intermodal division] revenue for the quarter declined 6% on a 10% increase in volume.”
Indeed, his assessment was rather generous for the carrier, telling investors: “2025 was the best-ever year for domestic intermodal, which also delivered another record-breaking quarter, driven by exceptional service and business wins.”
Quite which numbers he was looking at, The Loadstar cannot be sure, although UP did record a 5% upturn in revenue per car, to $1,794 in Q4, but this was not enough to bump up the full-year revenue per car performance, which was 1% down year on year, at $1,694.
Mr Rocker added: “We expect continued softness in international intermodal volumes in the near term as imports stay below last year’s level. Later in the year, comparison eases, but the import environment remains fluid.
“On the domestic side, we see continued opportunity and growth from over-the-road conversions enabled by our strong service product and multiple channels. Softening vehicle sales will pressure automotive volumes.”
On that same call, Mr Vena expressed optimism that the multibillion dollar tie-up with Norfolk Southern would be approved by the US Surface Transportation Board, hoping it would “come to the same conclusion as I have… it is positive”.
He added: “But at the end of the day, it is a process, frustrating as it is. Once in a while, I go home and I have a nice Irish whiskey to calm myself down before I go to bed, just to say, okay, I’m good with this. But stay tuned.”
Any confidence his rivals may be feeling can at least be backed by increased revenues across the board for both the final quarter of 2025 and the year as a whole – Canadian National showing itself to be best of the lot.
Fourth-quarter revenues and volumes both experienced a 10% bump, to C$964m (US$705m) and 539,000 carloads respectively, with full-year revenue climbing 4%, to $2.8bn, as volumes jumped 6%, to 2.2m carloads.
Praising her team for “disciplined execution and relentless focus”, CEO Tracey Robinson said: “As we enter 2026, we expect continued macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated geopolitical risk.
“We are managing through this environment by focusing on what we can control: disciplined capital allocation, rigorous cost management, and strengthening free cash flow. This approach positions CN to respond quickly as volumes shift.”
At Canadian Pacific Kansas City, chief marketing officer John Brooks told investors that, while “there’s no doubt there’s going to be headwinds and ongoing challenges”, he believed the carrier had created products that would allow CPKC to “compete differently”.
And a 6% upturn in volumes over the three months to January seemed to have shored up confidence that everything was on track, with 434,600 carloads handled over the period, leading to a 3% increase in Q4 revenue, which hit $478m.
Full-year numbers showed similar performance, with volumes up, to 1.7m carloads, an 8% increase on the previous year, and full-year revenue up 4% year on year, to $1.9bn, all buoyed by a strong international showing.
Mr Brooks said: “We remain encouraged by the strong performance of the Gemini [shipping] alliance and the growth opportunities it is creating across our entire network. Comparisons will be more challenging in the first half of the year.”
Meanwhile, CSX full-year revenue managed a 1% year-on-year increase, surpassing $2bn, as it handled 2.9m carloads (an upturn of 4% on 2024), with Q4 results showing revenue and volumes up 7% (at $562m) and 5% (782,000 carloads), respectively.
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