News / Shippers and carriers await Iran decision on Hormuz in response to US attack

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Logistics operators anxious over already fractured supply chains are contingency planning as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, weighs up closing the Strait of Hormuz after the US airstrikes against the country’s nuclear facilities.

Yesterday, local media reported the Iranian government had approved plans to close the strait, a move that would sever ocean access to Jebel Ali, one of the busiest box ports on the planet.

1Up Cargo’s general manager for South Africa, Cindy Luyt, told The Loadstar the impact would be twofold; firstly prompting a spike in global oil prices, “impacting the cost of any cargo movement”.

She added: “Secondly, any cargo movement in the area will become more difficult and I envisage the cost increasing substantially in the very near future – there are large volumes of southern Africa exports destined for the Middle East.

“1Up Cargo has in the past year noted increased cargo movement to and from countries that would be directly affected by the closing of the Strait; but even if it is not closed, I would expect carriers would possibly move in convoy, and this would affect costs substantially.”

Ms Luyt added that she thought attempted closure was “imminent”, although the capacity for the Iranians to completely cut access to the Strait has been questioned.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, told The Loadstar that prior to the US action he had considered it unlikely that Iran would be able to impose a “full closure”, but noted even a partial restriction could lead carriers to rethink their routings.

“As seen in the Red Sea, a credible threat is sufficient to push more risk-averse commercial companies to avoid an area; all it takes is a few successful attacks that demonstrate capability to do it again,” said Mr Jensen.

“Red Sea diversions happened after just a few containerships got attacked in mid-December 2023. This was all it took to start diversions which are continuing. As with the Red Sea, it will not close access to everyone – local shipping lines, not targeted, will increase their share.”

One repercussion has been the decision of some carriers to suspend services into Israel’s port of Haifa on the Red Sea, Hapag-Lloyd “temporarily” reducing two of its services into the port, the Atlantic Loop 7 and East Med Shuttle 3, citing the “current security environment”. Maersk has also suspended vessel calls to the Israeli port.

However, both carriers noted this morning that their vessels were continuing to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Hapag-Lloyd adding that it was “actively evaluating potential risks and ready to adjust our operations should conditions change”.

After Israeli attacks against Iran began, there had been indications that Tehran would be unlikely to move for a full blockade, or one that interfered with oil tankers – an industry it depends upon. But the US intervention has seemingly upended that.

Chief data & analytics officer at Pole Star Global Saleem Khan noted that the US-UK-Saudi coalition force, the Combined Maritime Forces, had shifted to “war footing” after Israel killed a number of key Iranian commanders.

Mr Khan said: “Tehran vowed ‘bitter, painful’ revenge. While no shipping disruption has occurred yet, we are cautious that a full Strait closure, though still an unlikely scenario, remains possible if the conflict deepens.”