News / Shifting box trade landscape 'opens opportunities for shippers and forwarders'

ID 317121553 © Mr.siwabud Veerapaisarn

The gradually shifting trade landscape has opened opportunities for carriers and forwarders, according to maritime analyst Sea-Intelligence, but a “tactical” chase in demand could lead to industry strain.  

By dividing cargo loaded on a given trade, using teu data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS), with total global container volumes in any given month, Sea-Intelligence reported that intra-Asia and head haul transpacific trades had shown a positive demand trend since 2018 – “systematically gaining share over the past seven years”. 

On the other hand, typical backhaul trades – Europe to Asia, Middle East and Indian Subcontinent and North America to Asia – have all seen the largest sustained drops in market share, which has resulted in a “larger trade imbalance” and “empty equipment repositioning issues”.  

And it while it might come as no surprise that backhaul trades have posted weaker demand, Sea-Intelligence also found that intra-regional trades in Europe, the Middle East, and Indian Subcontinent were showing “declining trends in terms of global importance”. 

Source: Sea-Intelligence

There have also been “substantial gains” for the Far East to Middle East and Indian Subcontinent – “a key trade to target for carriers seeking growth”, advised Sea-Intelligence.  

However, the analyst warned that the “frantic” addition and removal of capacity to chase demand, seen particularly on the transpacific, could be detrimental to industry dynamics.

It explained that while this responsiveness by carriers could be viewed favourably by some shippers, the container shipping industry could not be a “tactical week-by-week chase of cargo” – especially when volume predictions are “incredibly poor”.  

“When carriers do this, the end result is invariably blank sailings, port omissions, rolled cargo, and port congestion,” it said.

“It’s a bus, not a taxi.” 

And while Sea-Intelligence observed the systematic gradual shift in the demand landscape, it also emphasised the magnitude of external shocks to tradelane importance.  

When measuring demand in teu-miles, the Asia-Europe trade drastically increases its market share, due to the longer detours around Africa in the wake of the Red Sea crisis. 

Source: Sea-Intelligence

But when analysing demand by dividing the cargo loaded on a trade with total global container volumes, the Asia-Europe headhaul has roughly maintained the same market share since 2018.  

Source: Sea-Intelligence

“The Red Sea crisis has clearly caused major shifts in the global importance of individual trades,” said Sea-Intelligence. “But changes were also seen in teu terms, prior to the Red Sea crisis.”

The analyst concluded: “Hence, the shifting trade landscape does indeed open opportunities for carriers and forwarders, able to also gradually shift their focus, based on the shifting trade landscape.”