News / 'Rollercoaster' Asia to NAWC capacity is increasingly unstable

ID 251974001 © Sener Dagasan

The Transpacific market is “a rollercoaster ride” according to one major carrier, and data indicates that the weekly change in capacity from Asia to North America West Coast (NAWC) has more than tripled in volatility since 2012, “and appears to be on a long-term upwards trend”. 

Sea-Intelligence data recorded the amount of vessel capacity which de facto left Asia to North America West Coast (NAWC) in any given week from January 2012 to the end of June 2025. A 52-week average illustrated “a clear long-term trend playing out”, according to the analyst. 

Graph: Sea Intelligence Sunday Spotlight

It reported that the weekly capacity change in the Asia-NAWC trade for the past three years has been ranging some 250% higher than in 2012, meaning it has almost quadrupled. 

Stanley Smulders, director of product & network for Europe and Africa at carrier group Ocean Network Express (ONE), told The Loadstar that the Transpacific market in general “has been a rollercoaster ride.” 

“When the US administration announced its new tariffs, the drop in cargo flows from Asia as a whole, but China in particular, was rapid,” explained Mr Smulders. 

He noted that at this point, ONE was still in the process of rearranging its alliances and schedules, so was able to move capacity to other more lucrative trading areas faster.  

“But then suddenly, there was a change in approach to tariffs and whilst the negotiations continued between countries, cargo volumes went through the roof from one day to the next.

“Suddenly those ships that had been redeployed had to quickly return, as demand increased. The rates went up very quickly, which is a benefit for carriers, at a time when the ships were not full and the [overall] rates were substantially lower,” Mr Smulders said. 

Indeed, Sea-Intelligence iterated that the volatility of capacity being offered “will, all else equal, also create a more volatile environment in relation to spot rate formation”. 

Mr Smulders added that the carrier has already noticed demand in the spot market for the transpacific “is tailing off a bit”.  

However, while the current tariff uncertainty in the US is currently one of the main drivers of transpacific volatility, Sea Intelligence noted that “this increase in volatility is not just driven by extreme events, but is also a trend seen even in the most stable and calm weeks which experience the least variability in capacity”. 

“This also means that there is an increased volatility in the overall supply/demand balance in the Asia NAWC trade,” it said. 

“To the degree that spot rates are driven by the actual weekly supply/demand balance, this also means that the underlying driver for spot rate formation in the Asia-NAWC trade has become progressively more unstable over the past 13 years – creating a much more volatile and unpredictable spot rate in itself.” 

To illustrate that the increase in volatility has not just been “driven by a few events which are very large”, it also measured and compared the weekly capacity change for the 25% of weeks with the lowest volatility and the 25% of weeks with the highest volatility.  

Graph: Sea Intelligence Sunday Spotlight

“We can very clearly see how the trend is increasing. This means that it is not only the most extreme weeks with high changes, which are getting more extreme. It also means that even in the more stable and ‘calm’ weeks, the weekly change is increasing,” it said.