News / Low-value air cargo from China to Europe falls as cost rises

ID 221471477 © Andrii Yalanskyi

Low-value Chinese exports to North America continued to drop last month, according to air freight data, but to Europe, the picture is more complex.

According to data from Trade and Transport Group, exports of Chinese low-value goods declined 9% overall in December. 

“Even exports to Europe were down, and previously European growth was compensating for the decline to the US, following the end of the de minimis exemption in May,” said Frederic Horst, MD of Trade and Transport Group.

The data company found that trade value from China to the EU, UK, CH, Norway and Iceland fell 23% last month, confirming signs of deceleration reported in November.  

Hong Kong flag-carrier Cathay Pacific also revealed that its cargo arm posted a 3% month-on-month tonnage decrease in December , “as the festive season approached”. 

However, Mr Horst underlined that overall growth in 2025 remained strong, up 40% from the previous year, adding: “China still remains the primary source of cross border ecommerce, that will not change overnight.”

A spokesperson for air cargo intelligence platform Rotate told The Loadstar that, on a global scale, it had seen a drop in low-value ecommerce from China, “when purely looking at the US$ value”, but this wasn’t the case when looking at weight. 

“Our Air Demand Data products show continued ecommerce weight growth in December – which is historically always a strong month,” the spokesperson explained.  Indeed, according to Rotate data, total ecommerce exports to Europe showed a 30% month-on-month jump in weight, also 30% up on December 2024.

Further, Rotate’s airfreight capacity data base reported that China to Europe freighter capacity – both total and when zooming into ecommerce heavy carriers – saw similar capacity levels in December and November, “which would likely not have been the case if there had been a significant drop in volume”. 

Cathay Cargo also noted that its December liftings, though down month on month, were still up 6% on December 2024, while available tonne km increased 8%. For the full year 2025, its total tonnage increased by over 9%, compared with the same period for 2024. 

Ms Lau said that Cathay anticipated “softer demand” in the first half of the month and expected it to “gradually pick up” ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday in mid-February 

Meanwhile, trade value from China to the US had been “strongly negative” since May, said Mr Horst, who revealed that most months showed between 40% and 50% year-on-year decline. The overall annualised figure is down 28%. 

Rotate data showed flown weight down 19% to North America in December.

“In the case of the US, the drop is obviously due to the change in customs regime for direct low-value shipments,” explained Mr Horst. 

“In the case of Europe, I wouldn’t call one month a trend, but the biggest issue will be whether the kind of growth seen in the past years is sustainable. I also think that shipping direct from China to Europe is just too expensive in the long term – changing to a model with more localised inventory makes more sense,” he added. 

“Remember that we are talking average shipment values somewhere in the order of $20-$25 (or about $25-$30/kg).” 

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